Oscars 2021 - June Predictions

Uh... well, this has been an eventful past few months, to say the least. The reasons being I think are pretty obvious, but the ones I'll discuss will of course be in regards to the Oscars. So, here, I will attempt to do some predictions as I would normally do and discuss some of the changes in the process. So stand back, ladies and gentlemen, I'm gonna try and take a stab at what's probably the most uncertain field for an Awards Season ever.

Best Picture

1. Mank
2. Annette
3. Dune
4. Harry Haft
5. The French Dispatch
6. Tenet
7. Ammonite
8. Soul

First off, it's worth mentioning that I hope we can consider all of these 2020 releases, with the eligibility period being extended to the end of February 2021, because apparently good movies are only released during Awards season? It's a pretty poor move, especially if most of the nominated films for a ceremony for 2020 films are 2021 releases. In that case, what was the point of allowing straight to VOD and streaming films eligible? Maybe they'll be released elsewhere before the years end so they can count as 2020 films, considering that this all seems to be the biggest issues in the United States.

Speaking of straight to streaming films, that makes this the year for a Netflix film to win, particularly Mank, a biographical film about a Citizen Kane co-writer from a beloved director who still hasn't won with Gary Oldman helming the lead. If not, then Amazon has us covered with Annette, a musical from Holy Motors director Leos Carax staring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard, which could easily be a hit.

But if we are going off of theatrical releases, then Dune and Tenet are the best bets. Dune in particular, since it's not coming until later this year, is from an already nominated and well established director, and the film itself seems very ambitious. Tenet is lower because Nolan seems to think he can get things cleared up by the end of July, which is... not possible. But I could still see the film getting enough love to bypass what could easily be poor box office numbers and succeed with viewers.

Best Director

1. David Fincher - Mank
2. Leos Carax - Annette
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune
4. Barry Levinson - Harry Haft
5. Wes Anderson - The French Dispatch

Anderson is one I could see missing based mainly on gut feeling, but right now I believe he's a safer bet than Nolan for reasons previously stated, plus another one I'll get to in a bit...

Best Lead Actor

1. Ben Foster - Harry Haft
2. Adam Driver - Annette
3. Gary Oldman - Mank
4. Anthony Hopkins - The Father
5. John David Washington - Tenet

Ben Foster being a highly esteemed actor who still has yet to get an Oscar nomination has found what may be the part he needs as the titular role in the film about a boxer forced to fight in Holocaust concentration camps trying to find his first love in his life after the war. And from Barry Levinson no less, the director of Best Picture winner Rain Man; this seems like the perfect formula for Foster to get his due.

Driver I'm sure will get plenty of love for his turn in Annette, given how close he was to victory last year. Oldman and Hopkins being veteran winners in very baity roles helps, Hopkins in particular has already been seen and has received tons of praise. Then Washington is one I bet on as while I predict his film to underperform awards wise, I believe he'll have the love he needs to get in backing him.

Best Lead Actress

1. Marion Cotillard - Annette
2. Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Kate Winslet - Ammonite
4. Jessie Buckley - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
5. Jennifer Hudson - Respect

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Burke - Mank
2. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
3. Bill Murray - On the Rocks
4. Danny DeVito - Harry Haft
5. Forest Whitaker - Respect

Still have Burke as Orson Welles as my bet here, but let's talk about Delroy Lindo. A lot of talk has been going on about whether he's leading or supporting. With more screen time than anyone else in the film, but its also arguably an ensemble piece. My bet is that Netflix will go with supporting, unfortunately, because of the ensemble nature of the film and the fact that Lead Actor already has some contenders that will be hard to match. However, given that he has plenty of support backing him, it's possible that a leading campaign could work out instead.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan - Ammonite
2. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Vicky Krieps - Harry Haft
4. Meryl Streep - The Prom
5. Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Best Original Screenplay

1. Mank
2. Ammonite
3. Annette
4. Soul
5. Da 5 Bloods

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The French Dispatch
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Dune
4. Next Goal Wins
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

This category looks to be pretty barren this year, and The French Dispatch is supposedly based off of real newspaper stories, so Fox Searchlight would be silly not to run it here. Next Goal Wins and The Personal History of David Copperfield are really just films that could be swapped out with others here. However, I do feel that both could easily be here, especially with good word surround Copperfield and Waititi helming Next Goal Wins, which could actually be a bigger player in general, but given how uncertain things are right now, it's best to just wait and see what happens.

Best Film Editing

1. Harry Haft
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

A boxing/wrestling based film seems to be the kind of work that would impress Academy voters the most, a la Raging Bull, but still keep an eye on Dune, which is undoubtedly going to be a very big player in terms of the technical categories.

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. Annette
3. Tenet
4. The French Dispatch
5. Mank

Best Original Score

1. Annette
2. Dune
3. Tenet
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

Best Original Song

1. Annette
2. No Time to Die
3. Soul
4. West Side Story
5. The Prom

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. Annette
5. West Side Story

Best Costume Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. West Side Story
5. Mulan

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Hillbilly Elegy
2. Dune
3. Death on the Nile
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Tenet
3. Black Widow
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Call of the Wild

Best Sound

1. Tenet
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Soul

No more Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, just Best Sound. It's unfortunate given that the two are fundamentally different, and had many split wins in past years, including last with 1917 winning Sound Mixing and Ford v Ferrari winning Sound Editing. But, it is what it is, and with the one category now, my guess would be Tenet, because I can't see a Nolan picture not winning a single tech award nowadays, and Sound may be the ticket it needs.

Oscars 2021 - Year in Advance Predictions

I realize that it is far too soon to start discussing this, and I honestly couldn't care less since this constitutes at least 50% of my life. Let's jump into the action, here are my insanely early Oscars 2021 predictions.

Best Picture

1. Mank
2. Annette
3. Dune
4. The French Dispatch
5. Blonde
6. Ammonite
7. Tenet
8. Soul
9. Fonzo

Netflix is still getting the cold shoulder from the Academy, but a Hollywood set, black and white biography about Citizen Kane's co-writer is sure to strike their fancy. Close behind I'd say is Annette, which I feel is going to be a big hit, given the musical genre's luck as of late, and with an already acclaimed director helming it and Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard in the lead roles, it's difficult to overlook this one. Then there's Dune, from Denis Villeneuve who's already had his last two films win Oscars, and anticipation for his latest film is building up fast. It could easily sweep some technical awards if campaigned properly.

Best Director

1. David Fincher - Mank
2. Leos Carax - Annette
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune
4. Wes Anderson - The French Dispatch
5. Andrew Dominik - Blonde

Best Lead Actor

1. Tom Hardy - Fonzo
2. Gary Oldman - Mank
3. Adam Driver - Annette
4. Anthony Hopkins - The Father
5. John David Washington - Tenet

Taking a risk here, as Fonzo still has no release date/distributor, but perhaps it will find luck this year, as film with Tom Hardy in the lead with a makeup transformation that's bound to be divisive seems like a very possible win here.

Best Lead Actress

1. Ana de Armas - Blonde
2. Marion Cotillard - Annette
3. Kate Winslet - Ammonite
4. Jessie Buckley - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
5. Jennifer Hudson - Respect

Armas has already built up a devout following after her excellent performances in both Blade Runner 2049 and last year's Knives Out, and role as a character very much inspired by Marylin Monroe could be her Oscar ticket.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Burke - Mank
2. Benicio Del Toro - The French Dispatch
3. Paul Walter Hauser - Da 5 Bloods
4. Bill Murray - On the Rocks
5. Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods

Playing Orson Welles gives Burke a major advantage here from the get-go. Also worth looking at is Bill Murray in On the Rocks, where he plays an estranged father which seems perfect for Oscar chances.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan - Ammonite
2. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Amanda Seyfried - Mank
4. Meryl Streep - The Prom
5. Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

With 4 nominations already at such a young age, Ronan's appeal is clear, and her role as a unhappy spouse who starts a relationship with Kate Winslet's character in Ammonite seems like just what she needs to finally win.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Mank
2. The French Dispatch
3. Annette
4. Soul
5. Last Night in Soho

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Blonde
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. Dune
5. Nomadland

This category seems pretty sparse this year, so for now I'll place my bets on Blonde, with Armas already seeming like a possible Oscar winner and the film's director/writer Andrew Dominik seeming overdue for a nomination.

Best Film Editing

1. Dune
2. Annette
3. The French Dispatch
4. Mank
5. Fonzo

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. Annette
3. The French Dispatch
4. Tenet
5. Mank

As mentioned already, Dune will surely be a heavy tech-category contender, given Villeneuve's past two films finding love there. If not, then Annette will likely take it home, similarly to how La La Land did.

Best Original Score

1. Annette
2. The French Dispatch
3. Dune
4. Tenet
5. Mank

Best Original Song

1. Annette
2. No Time to Die
3. Soul
4. West Side Story
5. In the Heights

Annette being a musical pretty much guarantees it spots in the two categories above. Nothing more to say there.

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. Tenet
5. West Side Story

Best Costume Design

1. The French Dispatch
2. Blonde
3. West Side Story
4. Fonzo
5. Respect

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Fonzo
2. Blonde
3. The Witches
4. Hillbilly Elegy
5. The French Dispatch

The makeup transformation of Hardy alone should win over Academy voters, given recent wins as seen with Darkest Hour and Bombshell.

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Tenet
3. Eternals
4. Godzilla vs. Kong
5. BIOS

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dune
2. Annette
3. Tenet
4. Soul
5. West Side Story

Best Sound Editing

1. Tenet
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. The Invisible Man
5. Greyhound

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Raya and the Last Dragon
3. Over the Moon
4. How Do You Live?
5. Scoob!

Pixar with another film asking about life? There's another Oscar for them. Onward I doubt will get in, though, because although reviews are good, it isn't the hit the company's past few winners have been. Not to mention that it had a weaker opening than The Good Dinosaur, not a great sign.

Oscars 2020 - Final Thoughts

"Once you get past the 1-inch tall barrier of subtitles, you will be introduced to so many more amazing films." - Three-time Academy Award Winning Director Bong Joon-ho

Parasite has cemented itself as not only a history maker, but also as one of the greatest Best Picture winners in the Academy's history, and the category's first non-english victor. Winning 4 Oscars altogether, also including a surprise win in Best Director over Sam Mendes who had been winning everything else, Bong Joon-ho's brilliant film proved to be the favorite of even subtitle-hating voters, cementing its status as a soon to be classic that will looked up to for years to come. Also, shout out to Bong's translator Sharon Choi, who's film about the awards season is one I'll be watching for!

The rest of the show's winners proved to be mostly satisfactory as well, albeit pretty predictable.

First, however, let me start with the 4 acting winners, easily the most predictable wins of the bunch, and honestly a little underwhelming this year considering who they were up against. Joaquin Phoenix won Lead Actor for Joker, a win that will certainly be divisive years from now as it is currently, though I'm glad that he took this one even with his competition, although he's been better before (*cough* The Master *cough*). Then Renée Zellweger won Lead Actress for Judy, and this is where I get disappointed. She was great, despite her film being more of the opposite, but when compared to Saoirse Ronan in Little Women and Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story she was easily forgettable. Finally we have our Supporting winners Brad Pitt and Laura Dern, with Pitt winning for a great performance, but one I don't think should've won over Joe Pesci or Al Pacino, and Dern winning for one I just don't see the awards love for, but at least she has an Oscar I guess.

Tech category winners, on the other hand, were pretty deserving. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won Best Production Design for easily the best recreation of golden-age Hollywood ever, with sets that glowed with personality and charm; a very deserving win in my book. And Little Women very thankfully took home Best Costume Design, another well-earned win, though I more happy that the film won at least something than I am that it won for costumes specifically.

Film Editing was awarded to Ford v Ferrari, which was...a decision. Look, I think the film is fine, but the editing outside of the racing scenes was nothing special, and it honestly should've trimmed its runtime down more. I think editing was far more notable in Parasite and The Irishman. But I am fine with it surprising in Sound Editing over 1917, so I'm not too bitter towards it.

Speaking of 1917, the film many expected to be tonight's big winner only to be Bonged, the film unsurprisingly took home Best Cinematography, giving Roger Deakins another deserving Oscar. It also won for Best Visual Effects, which were basically unnoticeable in the film, which is typically a sign that good effects were present. Sadly, Thomas Newman was shut out again, with Joker winning Best Original Score instead, which had a good score, but I swear, Newman could resurrect Beethoven and the Academy wouldn't care.

Finally, Jojo Rabbit was this year's solo screenplay winner, getting comedy filmmaker Taika Waititi his first win, which. And even though I didn't love the film, I must admit that I am happy for the guy.

Welp, that all of the wins that each of the major nominees this year had! Except for The Irishman of course, which won for.....uh.....

Man, this hurts. It's no secret at this point that Scorsese's latest was my favorite film of last year, and watching it get rejected not only by the Oscar, but by other awards shows as well has been rough. It's surprising too; given how far Netflix went to campaign and how beloved it's been online, but I suppose it's what it is.

Thankfully, Bong Joon-ho once again made the night, as during his acceptance speech for Best Director, he quoted and praised Martin Scorsese, prompting the entire audience to give the legend a standing ovation. In all honesty, that's probably better than any Oscar win can ever be.

See you next year folks, and in the meantime I'm gonna be saving up my money to buy 10 copies of The Irishman's Criterion Collection release.

Oscars 2020 - Final Predictions

The time has come. Here are my final predictions for the Oscars 2020.
(NOTE: Films with an asterisk (*) next to them are my personal picks for their respective category)
(ALSO NOTE: I might change some of these mere hours before the show starts because I'm a coward, and if I do I'll leave a note under the changed category saying that I did with an explanation)

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman*
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Joker
7. Marriage Story
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari

It's clear that this race is almost entirely between 1917 and Parasite at this point, with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood trailing close behind. And 1917 seems like the frontrunner with PGA and DGA wins, I think the preferential ballot will be kind to Parasite. The only thing really holding it back is the fact that it's a non-english film competing in a year where the possibility for major diversity was basically ignored. But, considering the love it's been able to garner from not just awards guilds but from literally everyone who can read period, I think we're about to see history right there.

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes - 1917
2. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
3. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman*
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Todd Phillips - Joker

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker*
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Best Lead Actress

1. Renée Zellweger - Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
3. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women*
4. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
5. Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman*
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Florence Pugh - Little Women*
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite*
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. 1917

Parasite is clearly the crowd favorite here, especially after WGA and BAFTA wins, but the Academy's Tarantino love could easily pull through, especially given his film is about Hollywood. I'm tempted to go Hollywood here, but considering that Parasite is looking like the bigger player as of late and that it could very well win Best Picture, I'll go with that instead, but I won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman*
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Jojo Rabbit has gained some major momentum over Little Women after taking home the previously mentioned awards Parasite did. And films with the WGA and BAFTA combo here have rarely, if not ever lost the Oscar, so Taika Waititi better have a speech ready.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman*
4. Joker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. The Lighthouse*

Best Original Score

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women*
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Toy Story 4
2. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
5. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough

Probably my riskiest prediction here. Although Rocketman's success here in precursors shows, it doesn't seem like the Academy will go for it, especially after it was left out in all other categories. The three I listed below it don't feel like winners to me either. That leaves Toy Story 4, which just snuck in here last minute, and given the Academy's past love for Pixar songs and that this is a short season in general, I think it's a bet worth playing. I'm a natural Howard Ratner!

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite*
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit

It doesn't quite feel right that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins Supporting Actor and Production Design only as the combo just seems odd to me. However, given that we see this result for Lincoln, I think I'll stick by it. If not, then there's three possibilities: it also takes costumes (which I find unlikely as I think all the Best Picture nominees are winning something), it loses this category to 1917 (or possibly Parasite, but I doubt it), or it also wins Original Screenplay over Parasite, effectively making 1917 the Best Picture winner.

Best Costume Design

1. Little Women*
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

Playing it safe and sticking with Jacqueline Durran winning her second Oscar, but don't be surprised if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Jojo Rabbit win instead (Hollywood in particular), especially considering that this category is all over the place this year.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. Judy
4. 1917*
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. The Irishman*
2. 1917
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

This category is pretty much between 1917 and The Irishman. 1917 has the advantage in that it's won the BAFTA, but I feel that The Irishman will prevail despite the de-aging's divisiveness, especially after it's Visual Effects Society win for Best Supporting Effects, which lead major awards players from previous years Hugo and last year's First Man to win here despite losing BAFTA, Critics Choice, etc. 

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917*
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Ad Astra
5. Joker

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917*
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Klaus
3. Missing Link
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite*
2. The Rest

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Edge of Democracy
5. The Cave

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. A Sister

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Memorable
4. Sister
5. Daughter

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. In the Absence
4. Walk Run Cha-Cha
5. Life Overtakes Me

IN SHORT:

• I'm being risky and saying Parasite will make history instead of 1917 prevailing
• Acting winners are insanely predictable
• Costume Design is a tricky race
• All 9 Best Picture nominees will win something
• The Academy probably still loves Pixar songs
• Insert 6th point with quirky comment here

Oscars 2020 - First Winner Predictions

CLICK HERE TO SEE MY OVERALL THOUGHTS ON THE NOMINATIONS
If you are interested in further thoughts on any of the categories, please comment below and I'll get to you as soon as possible.

Best Picture

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes - 1917
2. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
4. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
5. Todd Phillips - Joker

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
4. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
5. Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Florence Pugh - Little Women
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. 1917

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. The Lighthouse

Best Original Score

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Toy Story 4
2. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
5. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. The Irishman
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. Judy
4. 1917
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. The Irishman
2. 1917
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Ad Astra

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. I Lost My Body
4. Klaus
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. The Rest

Best Documentary Film

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Edge of Democracy
5. The Cave

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. Une soeur

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Daughter
4. Mémorable
5. Sister

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If Your a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. In the Absence
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

Oscars 2020 - Nominations Thoughts

Welp, he didn't get nominated. Even with 10 nominations, The Irishman couldn't get De Niro in Lead Actor. Instead, we got Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes, who admittedly gave a very effective performance, but no way would I put him in over De Niro, and I'm sure those who wanted Taron Egerton for Rocketman would agree. But at least DiCaprio got in despite my speculation, so there's that.

Apart from all that, though, I'm mostly fine with how this year's Oscar nominations turned out, even with a questionable leader.

Yeah, I actually liked Joker as I said in my review (even though my issues with it have since grown), but it absolutely should not have 11 nominations, one more than The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and 1917.

That being said, those previously mentioned three are easily our three frontrunners now, plus Parasite (which I'll get to in a bit). 1917 in particular scored an Original Screenplay nomination, a major indicator of its love among Academy voters, and given results from Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, this might be our new frontrunner. If not, then Once Upon a Time in Hollywood takes it instead. But both films missed film editing nominations, something only two Best Picture winners have missed over the past 30 years. If I had to pick, then 1917 would be my guess right now, as it gives me Birdman and Braveheart vibes, a very good sign of what may come.

Despite this, Thomas Newman may not get his long awaited Oscar for it after all, with Joker seeing a boost after winning the two previously mentioned award shows that loved 1917. He definitely still has a shot, but unless he wins BAFTA then it's over.

The Irishman thankfully didn't underperform like I worried it would (based on what some online folks were saying), but it hasn't really hit home with award shows right now. Even with Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing, it's starting to become more likely that those will go to Little Women or Jojo Rabbit and Ford v Ferrari respectively. So, chances are Visual Effects will be the only prize it will take home, unless DGA and PGA gives it some love.

And yes, I don't see it winning Adapted Screenplay with Little Women and Jojo Rabbit there. If I had to guess between the two, I'd say Jojo Rabbit right now. But I think it's possible for Little Women to surprise at BAFTAs with a Supporting Actress win for Florence Pugh, and if that lead her to an Oscar win, I would be delighted.

Another Netflix film, Marriage Story, got the 6 nominations everyone thought it would (though I feel foolish about putting Jojo Rabbit over it in Original Score), but Laura Dern seems to be the only thing pushing the film forward right now, with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite seeming more likely in Screenplay now. It's likely that Johansson could make her way to the top with SAG over Zellweger, so perhaps there's more hope.

Speaking of Parasite, I was upset that Song Kang-ho didn't defy expectations to receive a Supporting Actor nomination, with Hopkins getting in instead. Other than it, it was able to score 6 nominations, including Film Editing which gives it a nice boost. And if any other film wins Best International Film, I will get a tattoo on my forehead.

The only Best Picture nominee I haven't touched on yet is Ford v Ferrari, which....uh.... got nominated. I don't have much to say on it, partly due to it being the only nominee I haven't seen, but I think it's going to win Film Editing, despite The Irishman having Thelma Schoonmaker.

Other noteworthy nominations I'd like to discuss would be Honeyland, which I believe is the first film to be nominated for both Best International Film and Best Documentary. It likely won't win either one (American Factory for Documentary), but it's pretty cool regardless.

Then in Best Animated Film, Klaus triumphed with a surprise nomination over Frozen II of all films, a big win for Netflix. But, it's much more likely that this will be Toy Story 4's win, given that it's Pixar and that it surprised in Best Original Song (which I initially predicted, but ultimately changed because of what I saw online. Thanks internet!).

Finally, I'd like to say just how happy I am that both The Lighthouse and Knives Out got solo nominations for Best Cinematography and Best Original Screenplay respectively. Just the words "Academy Award Nominee Rian Johnson" sound great!

Now, the fate of the winners lie in the hands of the Academy. Will they fulfill the prophecy, or mess it up again? .....they're gonna mess it up, aren't they? Ah well, whatever happens, hopefully The Irishman wins something.

Oscars 2020 - Final Nominations Predictions

This is it. Tomorrow when the bell tolls 7, we'll know everything, and soon we'll be fighting over what deserved a nomination and what didn't and complaining as to why something didn't get nominated. I'm anxious and excited at the same time, to see my dreams come true to see others be sunk, but whatever happens.....at least we can make fun of the Academy afterwards.

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. 1917
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari

I'm still banking on Parasite winning Best Picture for now just to be safe, despite Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's recent wins. I'm finally moving Jojo Rabbit back in here since its been able to mark all the right boxes so far, with the DGA nomination being the big one it needed.

Best Director

1. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
2. Sam Mendes - 1917
3. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Greta Gerwig - Little Women

Little Women has very thankfully gotten a big boost as of late, particularly with PGA and BAFTA nominations that benefit both its actors and the film's overall chances. And, since the 5th slot of this category is essentially up for grabs right now and the backlash Golden Globes got for a lack of female directing nominees, Gerwig seems like she'll fill that slot nicely.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Taron Egerton - Rocketman
5. Robert De Niro - The Irishman

Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but despite missing SAG and Golden Globe nominations, but I feel De Niro is still getting in. Not only is his film a big player, but his legacy is something I doubt they'll pass up.

Phoenix and Driver are clearly happening no matter what, and Banderas gives a performance I can't see not making it. That leaves Egerton and Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and DiCaprio, despite being nominated for everything so far, just doesn't have the enthusiasm behind him that the other 5 do that could boost De Niro and Banderas, and has had zero precursor wins so far, even losing the Comedy Golden Globe to Egerton. I wouldn't be surprised if he still got nominated, but I'm going by my gut and saying he'll miss.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Song Kang-ho - Parasite
5. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The three Ps are basically locked in at this point, and Kang-ho is easily the strongest candidate for "got nominated for nothing else but the Oscar" nominee. That leaves the fifth spot for Hanks and Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes to fight out. Hanks has been left in the dirt by the Academy for some time now, but the fact that he's playing Mr. Rogers and that his wonderful Golden Globe honorary award speech was right in the middle of Oscar voting, I finally feel safe saying that he's going to get an Oscar nomination again.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Florence Pugh - Little Women
4. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

No J-Lo? I can't help but feel that a snub is awaiting her, with the "got nominated for everything but BAFTA and then missing the Oscar nomination" curse just yelling at me here, the same fate that awaited James Franco for The Disaster Artist and Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. Who gets in over here is a different story, but I'm going with Kathy Bates, as despite her film bombing financially and being passed over entirely by Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA, I think that her overall appeal will speak to the Academy.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. The Farewell

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Two Popes
5. Joker

It pains me to leave out A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood here, but The Two Popes screenplay will undoubtedly appeal to Academy voters more, and Joker is far too well-liked in the industry. Although Joker could miss due to it being a comic book film, even then I Just Mercy pulling off a nomination-upset instead, given the Green Book-type appeal of the film.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Lighthouse
5. The Irishman

That fifth spot has been difficult to figure out, with Portrait of a Lady on Fire and A Hidden Life also seeming like likely solo-nomination candidates here, and Ford v Ferrari appearing at all the right precursors also. But I'm going with The Lighthouse, since the black and white appeal has gotten multiple films in this category as of late, and a BAFTA nomination for it really helps. The Irishman I feel is less safe, since it's cinematography is not one of the big things that comes to mind when people think of the film, and with Ford v Ferrari certainly having the momentum to best it, but I think I'll go with Scorsese's film considering it's been showing up here more.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Little Women
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Predicting that Jojo Rabbit will surprise and get nominated over Marriage Story, because if the BAFTAs nominated BlacKkKlansman over First Man the year before (which ended up leading to a shocking snub for the astronaut film), then recent history could very well repeat itself.

Best Original Song

1. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough
5. "Glasgow" - Wild Rose

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Little Women

I know that Joker has had more of a presence here than Little Women, but I think that the period-piece appeal of Little Women will overthrow it here, but that's probably the only time I'll say that regarding Joker.

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. The Irishman
5. Rocketman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

EDIT, JAN 12, 11:36pm: I decided to take Downton Abbey out of the #5 slots of both Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling basically last minute as I don't think the film really has the steam to get in anymore.

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Alita: Battle Angel
5. Terminator: Dark Fate

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. Missing Link
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Misérables
4. Atlantics
5. Those Who Remained

Best Documentary Film

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. One Child Nation
5. Maiden

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Little Hands
4. Miller and Son
5. Refugee

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Dcera (Daughter)
4. The Physics of Sorrow
5. Mind My Mind

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
2. Fire in Paradise
3. Stay Close
4. St. Louis Superman
5. Ghosts of Sugar Land

Oscars 2020 - What We Learned From The Golden Globes

After a pretty rough year in terms of winners last year (Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book), I was pleasantly surprised by how not terrible the Golden Globes were this time around, though I undoubtedly still have my reservations.

1917 exceeded expectations in terms of awards play and took home prizes for Best Picture Drama and Best Directing. A film that's already been praised as a technical achievement and one of the best of 2019, ensuring its place as a major awards player, and perhaps multiple Oscar wins and nominations. The film's composer, Thomas Newman, still couldn't get a break, however, with Joker's composer, Hildur Gu∂nadóttir, taking the Original Score globe instead, but chances are he's still taking him the Oscar come February 9th.

Speaking of Joker, Joaquin Phoenix further boosted his position as Lead Actor frontrunner with his win for Drama. Also given that his work is being lauded as perhaps the year's best by those in the industry (aka Academy voters), it seems like the Oscar is in his grasp, even with him being a bit of a wild card.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had an excellent night, taking awards for Best Picture Comedy/Musical, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt's performance, who, after already leading in precursor wins for his category, appears to be a solidified frontrunner for the race. The film is likely to be our new frontrunner for Best Picture also, with industry and precursor love, Tarantino being one of the most beloved filmmakers in history, and with these victories all more than solidifying its impact for this awards season.

What it didn't win was the Lead Actor Comedy award for Leonardo DiCaprio, which ended up going to Taron Egerton for his role as Elton John for Rocketman instead (which also won Best Original Song). Whether he has an Oscar nomination on the way next week or not is still up in the air, but with a SAG nomination also and a very likely BAFTA nomination tomorrow, he's for sure worth considering.

Netflix wasn't so lucky, as Laura Dern's performance in Marriage Story was the only film prize they could achieve, though this could easily be the beginning of a sweep for the long overdue actress. Their big heavy hitter from Martin Scorsese, The Irishman, shockingly went home empty-handed, which doesn't destroy its possible awards impact, with an Adapted Screenplay win still seeming very likely and past Best Picture winners not having any globe wins (ex. Spotlight), but it definitely harms its chances which were originally seen as huge.

For the actress awards, Renée Zellweger (Judy) and (Awkwafina) won Best Actress Drama and Comedy respectively, with Zellweger's win setting up a possible sweep for her and Awkwafina's surely helping her chances, but Oscar nomination still isn't quite guaranteed right now, but if she gets a BAFTA nomination, it could very well happen.

Parasite winning Best Foreign Language film was no surprise, nothing more to say there.

Finally, Missing Link took everyone's predictions and tore them to pieces with a Best Animated Film win that no one saw coming, and one in which it was the only original film (not a sequel/remake) nominated for that category. A victory most likely attributed to tons of awards consideration advertisements, but right now its still Toy Story 4 leading the pack, but if this stop-motion film from Laika continues getting awards (Critics Choice, BAFTAs), then an underdog winner could be on the way.

With our first awards show of the season said and done, we've been left in a position that both concerns me and reassures me. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood possibly being the new frontrunner is all good by me and I'm honestly up for Phoenix winning Best Actor, but the shade that The Irishman could get is worrying, and Zellweger winning in a year with Ana de Armas and Saoirse Ronan can't help but leave me feeling underwhelmed. But the globes have been disregarded by other awards shows before, and chances are something similar will happen this year also, so maybe The Irishman will prevail and that Scarlett Johansson will win Lead Actress instead.

Oscars 2020 - For Your Consideration

Every year this whole awards season thing sets a lot of people off because of how many great films (or great aspects from films, good or bad) end up getting completely ignored by awards bodies, mainly the Academy. So, with Oscar nomination voting only a couple days away from beginning, I've decided to take this issue into my own hands and create my own FYC page for films from various different companies so I can get the attention they deserve! Let's begin!

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

• Best Adapted Screenplay

Starting off is a safer but not a lock for a nomination hope of mine. Easily some of the most creative written of the year, Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue abandoned the typical biopic formula and wrote an episode of Mister Rogers Neighborhood instead. A move that made the story of Mr. Rogers so much easier to tell by not focusing as much on him and rather what he did. It makes the film so much more admirable, offering for some of the most memorable and moving moments of 2019.

The Farewell

• Best Lead Actress - Awkwafina
• Best Supporting Actress - Zhao Shuzhen

An Original Screenplay nomination still seems pretty safe for Lulu Wang's emotional dramedy, but its chances for acting awards have gone down as of late, so that's where I step in! Awkwafina offered a moving turn as a young Chinese-American woman trying not only to bond with her grandmother in her final days but also to reconnect with her Chinese culture that effortlessly carried the film. Then Shuzhen gave a heartwarming performance as the grandmother unaware of her approaching demise, one that really reminds us of why we love our grandmothers so much.

The Irishman

• Best Lead Actor - Robert De Niro

A film with Oscar chances that are soaring, but a nomination for its lead has me a little concerned after missing out on Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations. It's still likely, but if he misses it will be a massive shame, as De Niro gives a masterful performance that his career has needed. He effortlessly demonstrates toxic masculinity through a man who works to hide his emotions throughout the film with his vulnerability regarding his age and those around him becoming increasingly more apparent as it progresses.

Knives Out

• Best Picture
• Best Lead Actress - Ana de Armas
• Best Film Editing
• Best Production Design

Another film where an Original Screenplay nomination is more than likely, but has little momentum outside of that. It's unfortunate, because so much of it is brilliantly made, especially with its cast; particularly Ana de Armas who leads the murder-mystery with a nuanced and kind-hearted performance that makes her easy to root for. And the editing is so sublime, with transitions from the past and present being executed brilliantly, and some of the best use of slow-motion all year. The production design is what really ties it all together; the Thrombrey mansion is filled with so many details that are so admirable and true to the mystery genre.

The Last Black Man in San Francisco

• Best Supporting Actor - Jonathan Majors
• Best Cinematography

A beautiful film with amazing cinematography and music (that sadly wasn't shortlisted) that captures the feeling of comradeship between the two main characters in such a unique way. And Jonathan Major's performance is perhaps the strongest breakthrough one of the year, as he carries his character with so much creativity and splendor that truly makes the film.

The Lighthouse

• Best Supporting Actor - Willem Dafoe
• Best Cinematography
• Best Sound Mixing
• Best Sound Editing

Do I think Willem Dafoe is supporting in The Lighthouse? No, I don't. But if that's the path he's taking, then I'll follow suit if it leads him to a nomination. His work is utter magnificence, with some of the best line readings I've ever heard that offer both humor and thought-provoking moments for the viewer to bring in. Then the cinematography is the icing on the cake; shot in a black and white, 35mm aspect ratio entirely different from what's seen today that creates the feeling of isolation and mystery that makes the whole film. And the sound design doesn't get enough credit. It sets the mood for The Lighthouse so well, creating a sense of insanity that possibly could've consumed the viewer as well because of how unnerving it is.

Little Women

• Best Picture
• Best Director - Greta Gerwig
• Best Lead Actress - Saoirse Ronan
• Best Supporting Actress - Florence Pugh
• Best Adapted Screenplay
• Best Cinematography

I already claimed that I don't think Little Women will fare particularly well come January 13th, and now that I've actually seen the film, I'm now very worried by that possibility. Greta Gerwig has crafted an incredibly warm movie which she filmed while pregnant! She brought to live some of the most well-rounded characters in any film this decade. The performances do more than enough to help bring these characters to life, with Saoirse Ronan carrying the film and Florence Pugh giving far and away the best Supporting Actress performance in a film this year. And the 35mm camera work is beautiful, capturing the comfort of the film wonderfully.

There are other films worth mentioning, but here I was more focused on what was up for Oscars and could still bet the odds if the love is there, so sadly some were omitted for either not making the Academy's official eligibility reminder list or having basically no chance at all. So, don't just watch whats up for Oscars, watch all kinds of films regardless of whether it gets accolades or not, I'm sure that way you'll find something special.

Oscars 2020 - December Predictions

The holiday season has come and gone, and from it we have been gifted shortlists, preferential choices of 2019 from critic groups, and nominations from award shows. We're truly nearing the big day of Oscar nominations, with Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards winners taking place not too far before that at all. So, I've got some catching up to do, both with viewings and predictions.

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
6. Joker
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Bombshell

The race has been settled and is pretty much against three films now. The Irishman, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are leading with big nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and the Screen Actor's Guild. The immense love for Parasite has me see it as the potential winner above the rest, as everyone is on board the #BongHive, even being the first non-english film to score a Best Ensemble nomination from the Screen Actor's Guild. The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which are essentially tied here) are the only other two I can see winning. I see that any of those three are going to win here, they'll need to win both directing and screenplay also.

Best Director

1. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
2. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes - 1917
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. James Mangold - Ford v Ferrari

If you had a dollar for each time I spoke too soon, you'd be rich. Ford v Ferrari is pulling through with love for Christian Bale's performance and the film in general showing up. And with me still doubting Baumbach, Mangold is our new surprise pick. 

I should also note that considering how the Academy hasn't been particularly kind to Tarantino in recent years, as he was snubbed of a directing nomination for Django Unchained and a writing one for The Hateful Eight. Chances are his latest film's Hollywood factor will prevail in the end, but just in case I'll put him on the lower end of this category.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Robert De Niro - The Irishman
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
4. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
5. Lupita Nyong'o - Us

If Little Women gets pushed aside in the end (which I'm predicting), then that likely means Saoirse Ronan will be too. In that case, Nyong'o's brilliant performance which has been sweeping critics groups and even landed a SAG nomination. Toni Collette in Hereditary also swept critic mentions only to be passed by entirely by awards shows, but considering Us is actually being campaigned and got that SAG mention, I think it could overcome the genre bias.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Song Kang-ho - Parasite
5. Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

The Marina de Tavira effect may return, as her Supporting Actress nomination with zero major precursor mentions could return for Song Kang-ho for his even more praised performance in a film that's perhaps the most praised of the year.

Hopkins is holding on by a thread here. Right now its either him or Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and it's no secret that the Academy has been harsh to Hanks as of late, most notably with his infamous Captain Phillips snub. It's very possible that he could overcome it this time, but I'll stick by Hopkins for now.

Regardless, this race is between Pitt, who's been the clear favorite with critics right now, and Pesci, whose praise has him second up in critics mentions. I'd bet on Pitt as even if The Irishman won Best Picture, I couldn't quite see it winning any acting awards. But don't be surprised if Pesci does end up being the victor.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Nicole Kidman - Bombshell
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

If the Academy went for Vice last year, then it wouldn't be a shocker if they also went for Bombshell. Especially if those SAG nominations mean anything (trust me, they do), with both Robbie and Kidman getting in and a Best Ensemble nomination being earned also.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. The Farewell

I'm afraid it's time to say goodbye to Knives Out being huge as I predicted. The screenplay nomination is still a given, but right now it isn't making the impact at precursors and award shows nominations it needs to succeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see it score other nominations, though (Editing and Production Design nominations please).

Marriage Story has proven to be beloved with it leading in overall critic circle mentions for Screenplays, but isn't up to speed with Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's impact so far, and I find it hard to see any of the big three mentioned earlier winning Best Picture without a screenplay win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Two Popes
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Just Mercy

Joker may seem like a safe bet here thanks to Critics Choice and critics group nominations, but the writing branch of the Academy hasn't been keen on nominating comic book films such as The Dark Knight and more notably and recently Black Panther, both of which received Writer's Guild Awards nominations. Logan is an exception, but that year Adapted Screenplay was incredibly weak. Instead, Just Mercy takes its place, with shades of Green Book (last year's Original Screenplay) that are sure to catch the attention of voters despite it being more under the radar compared to other films I'm predicting.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. Marriage Story

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. A Hidden Life

Portrait of a Lady on Fire has been scoring nominations and even wins from critics groups for its cinematography, with many predicting it to be the only nomination for the film come January. But I worry that the film will be passed over as it has been lately, with France not even submitting it for Best International Film. I wouldn't be surprised if I were proven wrong, however, and the film's director (Céline Sciamma) getting a nomination would be my dark horse pick for the category. For now though, I'll stick by Terrence Malick's latest film getting its sole recognition here.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Toy Story 4
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen 2
3. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
4. "Stand Up" - Harriet
5. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. 1917

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Downton Abbey
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. The Irishman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Alita: Battle Angel
5. Captain Marvel

The omission of Ad Astra from the Visual Effects shortlist shocked the film's fans, leaving the impression that voters don't care about the film enough. It could be the lone Sound Editing nomination this year, but be weary.

The Irishman has rather impressive de-aging that was able to make the shortlist, but the divisiveness of the effects will be something that could easily blunt its chances here, even with those who love the gangster flick criticizing it. And if Dunkirk couldn't land a VFX nomination, then chances are 1917 won't either.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is far too divisive to warrant a win, even though a nomination still seems pretty save. The Lion King, on the other hand, is disliked in general and will need to get past that to win.

That leaves Avengers: Endgame, a film that's both popular and mostly well-liked. Not to mention how we still have yet to see an MCU film win here, and the film that treats it as its finale will be sure to catch the attention of voters.

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Joker
5. Midway

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Ad Astra

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. Abominable

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Misérables
4. Beanpole
5. Those Who Remained

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. One Child Nation
4. Honeyland
5. The Edge of Democracy

If Won't You Be My Neighbor and Jane missed nominations here despite seeming like obvious frontrunners the day before nominations were announced, chances are Apollo 11 will see the same fate.

I'll hold off on predicting the short film categories for now, but I promise that I'll have them for my next and final nominations predictions sometime next month before the 13th.

Oscars 2020 - November Predictions

Well folks, we've (kind of) made it. Every film we've been keeping our eyes on throughout the awards season has been seen, with the exception of Cats, but..... ya know. With nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic's Choice Awards less than two weeks away, now would be an excellent time to see how things are going.

Best Picture

1. The Irishman
2. 1917
3. Marriage Story
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Parasite
6. Joker
7. Knives Out
8. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Yes, I'm giving in. I've already talked in the past about being hesitant about predicting 1917 to the extent that others have because I felt that the one-shot style would be incredibly hit or miss, not to mention how Sam Mendes' work is a bit divisive also. But after first reactions dropped just recently, it's safe to say that it'll be a big hit with multiple awards guilds.

That being said, I'm still betting on The Irishman winning. The runtime and Netflix bias is certainly going to factor against it, but the acclaim is most certainly there from both audiences and critics.

Marriage Story isn't far behind 1917 if not tied with it right now, so you can somewhat consider this to be a brawl between The Irishman, 1917, and Marriage Story.

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
2. Sam Mendes - 1917
3. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
5. Rian Johnson - Knives Out

"When is this kid going to give up on Knives Out?" Well, I'm glad to say that my answer is never. I'll consider it the "surprise hit" for the awards season right now, similar to Phantom Thread, because the praise both online and from AMPAS it has been getting so far and the its likelihood of success is something that will easily give it a major boost. Hopefully that will make Lionsgate realize that they should be campaigning it more as well.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Robert De Niro - The Irishman
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory

Nothing new to say here since last time, but I should note that De Niro and DiCaprio are basically tied. Also worth mentioning is that Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name could make it here as well, but Banderas performance and film seems to be more like something the Academy would like. Murphy is still worth keeping an eye on regardless, and maybe he'll be able to pick up with nominations from the Critic's Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Ana de Armas - Knives Out
4. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
5. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood I predict is going to be this award season's Philomena. It gets nominated for the same four categories, but the big twist here is that it actually wins the acting category it was nominated for. Hanks already has a big push going for him, and the fact that he's playing Mr. Rogers is irresistible. The Academy may have been keen on snubbing him as of late, but I believe that this will be the one.

Dafoe in The Lighthouse I admit might be more wishful thinking on my part if anything, considering how much I love the film and Dafoe in general. But the way he snuck into the lead actor category last year for At Eternity's Gate really gives me the feeling that the love for him is enough to get him the nominations that he deserves, regardless of genre bias in this case.

And if Dafoe doesn't work out, then put in Shia LaBeouf for Honey Boy instead, which has been getting perhaps the biggest push from Amazon right now and has gotten a good amount of love from those in the industry.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Annette Bening - The Report
5. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

Best Original Screenplay

1. Knives Out
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Farewell

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Jojo Rabbit I feel won't be able to pull through in the end. Its reception has already been very divisive in a season where films that are loved by most are prevailing (with the exception of the divisive Joker, which gets its awards boost from its lead performance and massive box office success).  Not to mention how much more successful other contenders it's up against have been. Maybe I'm wrong, but for now I'll go by by gut and say it won't get a Best Picture nomination, although one for screenplay still seems pretty safe.

Best Film Editing

1. The Irishman
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. Joker

The Irishman takes the front spot mainly because of the runtime and how the editing made it seem so quick. Not to mention that Thelma Schoonmaker is perhaps the most respected film editor in the industry.

1917 is an interesting case here, because war films often do well in this category, and this one even has Lee Smith (previous winner here for the amazing Dunkirk) attached. However, it's one-shot style. although being greatly aided by editing, will seem much more like an effort for cinematography (which it honestly should). This may actually play against it for this category given how the last film in this style, Birdman, won in cinematography but wasn't even nominated for film editing, likely a result of voters thinking the editing is less plausible because of how it is in the style of being one shot. So, I'll lay on it getting nominated here for now, but I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong.

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. A Hidden Life

Roger Deakins goes from being at #2 to looking at #2. I already established 1917's one-shot look above, so I don't think I need to go into too much detail about how it'll easily win over Academy voters. 

Joker has been able to find a surge in this category as of late, particularly with its main competition win at Camerimage, a major cinematography guild. The film has already received plenty of praise for its camerawork already, so it looks like a nomination here is underway.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Little Women
3. Marriage Story
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Original Song

1. "The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy" - Toy Story 4
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
3. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
4. "Beautiful Ghosts" - Cats
5. "Stand Up" - Harriet

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. 1917
5. Knives Out

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Downton Abbey
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. The Irishman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Downton Abbey

Best Visual Effects

1. Ad Astra
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. The Aeronauts
5. Captain Marvel

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Ad Astra
5. Midway

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Ad Astra

Academy loves war films when it comes to sound design, and know that my fears that it would be too divisive have been dashed, I now feel safe in predicting it to win both of them. As for Ford v Ferrari, I honestly feel like it too won't make it anymore. Not that it isn't well-liked, just that it doesn't seem to have the legs needed to stand against other films throughout the season. Right now, it'd be best to say it'll be the next Baby Driver in the sense that it'll get editing and sound nominations and nothing else.

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. Weathering With You
4. Missing Link
5. I Lost My Body

Frozen II may be winning the hearts of fans of the first film right now, but Toy Story 4 still has the far better reception from both audiences and critics to give it a major advantage here. It also helps that the Academy loves Toy Story and Pixar in general.

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Les Misérables
3. Monos
4. Gully Boy
5. Atlantics

#BongHive