Oscars 2020 - October Predictions

Well, we've past all of the major film festivals now. All of the films that are being considered major awards players have been seen now (with a few exceptions), and the awards from various film critic groups are just around the corner. So, consider this my last batch of predictions before the ice breaks and everyone freaks out about their favorite film of the year being ignored by awards bodies.

Best Picture

1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Knives Out
5. Parasite
6. Ford v Ferrari
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Joker
10. 1917

I've been trying to avoid predicting up to ten Best Picture nominees, but considering the films that are in contention and the reception they've been getting (positive enough for each one to warrant enough #1 votes from Academy members), it wouldn't surprise me that we reach the big ten again. 

To the shock of no one ever, The Irishman received extraordinary praise from New York Film Festival, solidifying its Oscar chances even more so. Although the Netflix bias and runtime could still play against it, I have hope that Academy voters will be able see through this and watch the film for what it is.

Just like the time before last time, I spoke too soon...uh...last time in regards to Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit. Not only have the film's reviews improved greatly following my last predictions post, but literally two days after I put that one up the film had won the People's Choice Award from TIFF. Keep in mind that the last two films to win that were Green Book (ew) and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. So, right now Jojo is back in the game, albeit how much it's back in I'm still not entirely sure of.

Joker is undoubtedly the most divisive of the year among literally everyone. However, it looks like enough people love it enough to the point where it could easily overcome this and be the second comic-book film to receive a Best Picture nomination. And considering how well the film is doing at the box office right now, it certainly seems likely (I wrote my own thoughts on the film here for those interested).

1917 is a film with awards potential that I have been veeeery skeptical about. Sam Mendes' post-Road to Perdition films are already pretty split among people (with the exception of Skyfall), and there is no way that its one continuous shot scheme is going to sit fine with everyone. I'm warming up to its chances though, because I can't deny that a film like this being shot by Roger Deakins is going to work beautifully for plenty of people. I don't think this will be massive in terms of awards play like so many others do, but I know think a Best Picture nomination is possible for it.

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
2. Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
3. Rian Johnson - Knives Out
4. James Mangold - Ford v Ferrari
5. Marielle Heller - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Robert De Niro - The Irishman
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory

Phoenix looks like he'll be riding high in February. Warner Bros. looks like they'll be ready to campaign him like crazy, and with the film's previously mentioned success and that most people are at least agreeing that his performance was great, I now feel comfortable not only predicting him as a nominee but as the full-on frontrunner.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Thomasin McKenzie - Jojo Rabbit
3. Renée Zellweger - Judy
4. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
5. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

McKenzie has surprisingly gotten the most praise out of Jojo Rabbit's cast so far, making it seem like she'll at least get a Golden Globe nomination. And if she ends up winning that, I can see her climbing the ladder and even surpassing Zellweger's chances.

Johansson is still my pick since the reception she's gotten has been consistently great, and Netflix will certainly campaign her like crazy soon.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Chris Evans - Knives Out

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Ana de Armas - Knives Out
3. Annette Bening - The Report
4. Margot Robbie - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

Dern still looks like the safest bet for this category, so not much new here. 

Ana de Armas has been getting high praise for her performance in Knives Out, though right now it isn't entirely clear whether she's getting campaigned in Lead or Supporting. Lead would seem like a poor place to put her, though, since this kind of film seems like its performances would benefit more if they were all campaigned supporting (except for Craig). And I feel that Armas will be able to get enough momentum to become a possible frontrunner here.

The recently screened Bombshell as people freaking out about how good Margot Robbie is in it, but I worry about how well the film will do financially, and chances are if the Academy has the choice between Sharon Tate and a Fox News intern, chances are they're gonna go for Sharon Tate.

Maggie Smith is my "surprise nominee" here, because I originally had Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit in her place, but people are raving her performance when compared to Waititi's and McKenzie's. Smith then comes in as she's easily one of the most well established British actresses out there who has already won two Oscars before that has what is easily the most well-liked performance in the film (based off the show which she also received awards for). So if Focus Features is able to realize the awards potential she may have, then she'll be able to get what will likely be the last Oscar nomination of her career. 

Best Original Screenplay

1. Knives Out
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Farewell

Considering that I'm the only one who has predicted it as a major awards contender since the beginning, this would probably be a good time to explain my stance on Knives Out's awards chances. It's writer/director, Rian Johnson, has just recently gotten his name out there to wider audiences (whether that's good for him or not is debatable) and as a result has gotten Lionsgate to give his latest film a pretty big push with a big chance of bringing in lots of cash (especially with that cast). And after it's premiere at TIFF, it became pretty clear that this is going to be a favorite for all audiences. So be sure to keep an eye on it so you can come back here in January or February and tell me, "Wow Aidan, I can't believe you were right!"

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Jojo Rabbit actually looks like a very realistic winner for this category. Even with the mixed reception it still looks like it has the appeal to take it home. For now, however, I'm still gonna stick with The Irishman just to play it safe (cowardly, I know).

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. Joker

Ford v Ferrari has been an interesting film to look at this season, as even after its praise following showings at both Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, though it hasn't had people saying it will be a massive film to keep an eye on this season. However, I have a very good feeling that this film has the ability to crush it at the box office and win over enough wider audiences, similar to how Hacksaw Ridge did. The only concern then is that Disney now owns Fox, and they'll definitely be more interested in promoting Frozen II, which comes out a week after this. Regardless I still think it'll be able to pull through and at least dominate the editing and sound categories throughout the season.

Best Cinematography

1. The Irishman
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrai
5. A Hidden Life

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Little Women
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Poor Thomas Newman has been nominated 14 times before and lost each time. But now, 1917 may be what he needs to succeed. The field is already seeming a bit weak as of right now, especially since A24 seems more interested in promoting The Lighthouse instead of Waves (my previous frontrunner prediction for this category). It may be likely that Newman finally gets his due at last purely because of his overdue narrative, and I'm okay with that!

Best Original Song

1. "The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy" - Toy Story 4
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
3. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
4. "Stand Up" - Harriet
5. "TBA" - Cats

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Little Women
4. Downton Abbey
5. 1917

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Downton Abbey
4. The Irishman
5. Dolemite Is My Name

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Bombshell
4. Downton Abbey
5. Aladdin

Past films involving the Clown Prince of Crime have been able to find their way into this category, even the panned Suicide Squad was able to win here, let alone get nominated. So even though the makeup work in Joker isn't something like say a major transformation of an actor, I bet you the Academy would still go for it.

Best Visual Effects

1. Ad Astra
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. The Lion King
5. Captain Marvel

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Ad Astra
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Judy

Best Sound Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Ad Astra
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Avengers: Endgame

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4. Weathering With You
5. Missing Link

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Les Misérables
3. Monos
4. Atlantics
5. Gully Boy

Parasite has been the clear frontrunner of this category ever since its premiere at Cannes Film Festival, and ever since then its support has been growing more and more. And after its impressive opening in New York, it's clear that this will be one to watch, both literally and figuratively.