Oscars 2020 - September Predictions

We're in the start of September, and that means that the awards season has officially begun, with Telluride and Venice Film Festivals having wrapped up  and Toronto International Film Festival (aka TIFF) drawing to a close, a lot has been learned over the past couple weeks. What films have lived up to expectations and haven't pulled a Billy Lynn? What will surprise us all and plunge into awards glory? Let's find out!

Best Picture

1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Knives Out
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
6. Ford v Ferrari
7. Waves
8. Just Mercy

Yeah, I definitely spoke too soon on Marriage Story the last time I made Oscar predictions. Especially after the reception Noah Baumbach's latest got from Telluride and Venice, it's safe to say that a Best Picture nomination is in its future.

I originally put A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood as a lone Adapted Screenplay nominee in my past two predictions posts, but after it's TIFF reception it's pretty safe to say that the film has awards success on it's way.

Waves A24 got a lot of love out of Telluride, with critics going nuts for it right now. With a TIFF appearance as well, it's sure to be another big hit for the indie distributor.

Just Mercy is getting good reception from TIFF, although not as good as say Green Book which dealt with similar themes. So it may not be a big Best Picture player as other initially thought, but because of said themes I do think it could at least get nominated.

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
2. James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari
3. Rian Johnson for Knives Out
4. Marielle Heller for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Trey Edward Shults for Waves

Right after I say that Marriage Story is a Best Picture contender I then say that Baumbach won't get a Directing nomination for it. I think he's going to miss out similarly to how Martin McDonagh and Bradley Cooper did along with Tarantino, getting nominated for everything else only to miss out at the Oscars in favor of a surprise nominee.

Waves director Shults would be a good contender for the "surprise nominee" since although I don't it'll be as big as an awards hit as others do outside of Original Score, it's still very likely that enough Academy voters will like it enough to get it a nomination for this category.

Best Lead Actor

1. Robert De Niro in The Irishman
2. Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Adam Driver in Marriage Story
4. Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory
5. Michael B. Jordan in Just Mercy

Let me tell you buddy, this category is a bloodbath this year.

Joaquin Phoenix is getting praise for his performance in Joker, but I feel like he's destined to be the one that just barely misses this year (with Jordan being the one who takes his spot).

Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse could stand a significant chance here, but right now it sounds like A24 is planning on campaigning him in the Supporting Actor category, which is also packed. But who knows, maybe they'll change their minds and put him in Lead Actor after all, but right now that seems doubtful.

Despite praise for Driver and DiCaprio in their films, I do see them getting nominated but I just don't see them winning for their work, especially for DiCaprio who already has an Oscar.

For now, I'll just stick with De Niro who has the titular role in The Irishman. Not only does it seem like a substantial career comeback for him, but he's working with freakin' Scorsese again. How can you turn that down?

For now, though, it would probably be best to play the waiting game for this category and to just slowly watch more information and praise to come in.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story
2. Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
3. Saoirse Ronan in Little Women
4. Charlize Theron in Bombshell
5. Jodie Turner-Smith in Queen & Slim

I originally said that Harriet reminded me of Darkest Hour, well now it's giving me more Jackie vibes instead. Right now the film just doesn't look like it's got enough steam to sweep the awards, and will probably just get nominations in Lead Actress and one or two other technical categories.

Johansson on the other hand is getting career best praise for Marriage Story, which Netflix seems ready to give a big push for Awards, so to the top she goes.

I was skeptical about putting Ronan here since I'm feeling Little Women won't be campaigned well enough, but the Academy (and everyone else for that matter) seems to like her enough at this point to let her in.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2. Joe Pesci in The Irishman
3. Chris Evans in Knives Out
4. Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Jamie Foxx in Just Mercy

The Academy may have been pretty dismissive as of late towards Hanks. However, with him being the household name actor in America that's been getting some of the best reviews of his career for his newest work, and for a role that's very likely to be campaigned supporting no less, to say his third Oscar is on his way is very realistic as of now, especially considering that he's playing Mr. Rogers.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern in Marriage Story
2. Annette Bening in The Report
3. Jamie Lee Curtis in Knives Out
4. Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Meryl Streep in The Laundromat

Dern's time may at last be here. The beloved actress is in an already acclaimed film with a supporting role that has been praised as one of her best performances. Perhaps she can finally win!

Best Original Screenplay

1. Knives Out
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Waves
5. Parasite

The premiere Knives Out at TIFF was among the best at the festival this year, and it's reviews so far have been through the roof. I've been saying this since I started making my Oscar predictions and I'll say it again, this movie is going to be a very big deal. Oh, and Parasite is being acclaimed like crazy too and is a surefire for Best International Film so here ya go.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3. Just Mercy
4. The Farewell
5. The Two Popes

Poor Jojo Rabbit got extremely divisive reception reception out of TIFF, meaning that it's Oscar chances aren't to hot anymore. Divisive films has made it into multiple categories in the past, most notably being Vice from last year, but when you compare the themes in Jojo Rabbit to the ones in Vice, it's certainly a detriment to Waititi's latest. Maybe it can sneak in here since Adapted Screenplay is kind of weak this year, but I wouldn't count on it.

For The Farewell and The Two Popes, I owe credit to Will Mavity from Twitter who pointed out that both films were adapted and not original as most people have been predicting. The Two Popes he said was based off a play the film's writer Anthony McCarten wrote, and The Farewell is based on a story its writer and director Lulu Wang wrote for "The American Life". The Academy is also known for putting films in Adapted regardless of whether its been considered Original or not given the circumstances (Ex. Moonlight) so chances are the same will apply to both films.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Cinematography

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. A Hidden Life

Best Original Score

1. Waves
2. Ford v Ferrai
3. Little Women
4. 1917
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

As previously mentioned, Waves is likely to sweep this category throughout the awards season, as the music in it is by far the most praised aspect of it so far. So what ever happens to it, it's safe to say that it'll at least end up with good luck here.

Best Original Song

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. The Lion King
4. Harriet
5. Cats

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Downton Abbey
5. Ford v Ferrari

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Downton Abbey
4. The Irishman
5. Dolemite is My Name

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joker
3. Bombshell
4. Downton Abbey
5. Aladdin

Going for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood winning the three categories above, as I already brought up last time in regards to Costume and Production Design that the film's 1960s recreation will be something the Academy won't simply say no to. Adding in Makeup and Hairstyling to the mix now because although it isn't as showy as the past couple of winners in this category, but it's still being considered rather impressive, and for a category like this and a film like this, a win seems like it could truly happen.

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. The Lion King
4. Captain Marvel
5. Spider-Man: Far From Home

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Ad Astra
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Judy

Best Sound Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Ad Astra
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. Missing Link
4. How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5. Okko's Inn (the anime movie I foreshadowed oh so long ago)