Oscars 2021 - January Predictions

Yes, I am alive. 

I apologize for my... well... extended absence. I had been focusing more on other things over the past few months and my motivation to write here has been a bit down recently, which is why there's only been one post within the past 6 months. But - BUT - now I am back and ready to predict. There's plenty to discuss with the various changes there have been since my last predictions batch (not all of which I'll touch on), and with the Golden Globes/Screen Actors Guild awards nominations being about a month away, there is no time to waste.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. One Night in Miami
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Mank
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Soul

Now that so much time has passed, I finally feel confident to not only see Nomadland as a major contender, but also as what may be the next Best Picture winner. Mank seems to fallen off a bit despite still being of large notice, which I'll touch on more a bit later, which leaves that and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as the big ones left.

Although Chicago 7 hits all the right marks for the Academy, I'm going with Nomadland as it has the universal love to back it up, while Chicago 7 is more divisive among people despite many leaning positive. Also, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Academy members picked it purely to spite Netflix movies.

One Night in Miami I think is also worth keeping an eye on, as I could see it gaining plenty of momentum as awards season heats up. For now, however, I'll stick with my current top 2 as the big contenders.

Best Director

1. Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
3. David Fincher - Mank
4. Regina King - One Night in Miami
5. Florian Zeller - The Father

Although Zhao's work is what I consider the frontrunner so far, I think Sorkin makes for a more realistic directing winner currently. The Trial of the Chicago 7 simply appears to be a far more conventional pick for directing here, and the Academy certainly hasn't been stranger to Best Picture/Director splits as of late. I wouldn't be surprised if Zhao won here and Chicago 7 got Best Picture instead, though.

Best Lead Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Gary Oldman in Mank
4. Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
5. Steven Yeun in Minari

Here's the big one, ladies and gentlemen. The late and great Chadwick Boseman is clearly the most popular mention for this category at the moment. But I believe Anthony Hopkins could secure a second win with what is already a very appealing type of performance for the Academy.

Many seem to think Oldman may miss out, but if the film is still going to make it in for Picture, Directing, so on and so forth, than I find it impossible for him to miss out.

Lindo I fear could make it in for everything but then miss the Oscar nomination (maybe this year's BAFTA curse?), but his work and the praise its garnered is far too formidable for him to simply miss, so here's hoping he pulls through because he deserves it.

That fifth spot is a tricky guess, and I'm betting on Steven Yeun pulling through. The other big contender is Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal, whose film I simply don't see pulling through the weight of awards season. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor. Yeun, on the other hand, has a film that is getting high notices across the board and could easily be the indie surprise of the season. It very well could be that he'd make history as the first Korean actor nominated here.

Best Lead Actress

1. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Meryl Streep in The Prom

Davis, Kirby, and McDormand are presumably locked in at this point here, and of those three I believe Kirby will since her role relies on emotions that the Academy loves to award time and time again. It helps that she is the only one of the three not to have won before.

For those last two spots, Andra Day I think could pull through and get nominated for a role that could certainly get the Academy's attention, assuming it releases on time. And Streep is always a favorite of the Academy's, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Golden Globes give The Prom the boost it needs to score her another nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Bill Murray in On the Rocks

Odom Jr. is my current frontrunner guess given his rising popularity as of late and his role certainly being the kind the Academy goes after. 

Behind him is Sacha Baron Cohen, who received high praise for his work in Chicago 7, and if the film really does take off this season as I predict, then it's bound to get double nominations here. If it goes that way, then Mark Rylance, a previous winner here for Bridge of Spies, would be my guess. 

Glynn Turman turned out a surprise win at the Los Angeles Film Critics Associations awards, and given Ma Rainey's Black Bottom's praise from critics, he's worth keeping an eye on. 

Then there's that fifth slot. I already mentioned my doubts about Paul Raci earlier, so he's out. Also being considered is Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah, but I'm currently having doubts that he'll be able to squeeze through, especially since his film is a later release. That leaves Bill Murray in On the Rocks, and although his film hasn't gotten a huge push, I think he could get in if he is able to pick up notice from notable and larger film critics groups like the National Board of Review.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman in The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
4. Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman
5. Helena Zengel in News of the World

Colman is the only realistic winner I can see here. Yuh-Jung will certainly have support but I doubt she'll get enough to pull ahead of bigger names. Seyfried has gotten plenty of praise for her part, but her role simply doesn't feel like an Oscar winning one at all. Burstyn makes sense as a returning veteran nominee and Zengel's being the rising star getting recognition makes sense, but neither seem to have paths towards a win. Thus Colman, poised to return following her 2018 win for her outstanding work in The Favourite, seems most realistic to win here.

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. Soul
5. Promising Young Woman

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. I'm Thinking of Ending Things

The two screenplay categories could easily decide the Best Picture winner this year. Minari could be the indie favorite that gets a sole Original Screenplay win, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 will undoubtedly be a more appealing film to Academy voters. If Minari does win, though, it will certainly block Chicago 7 from a Best Picture win.

Nomadland is a clear pick for Adapted Screenplay, but One Night in Miami could also surprise, but which ever one wins I think could easily be a Best Picture winner also.

As for the sole nominees in each category, Promising Young Woman is a film I don't think many Academy voters will buy, but I do think the screenplay branch will at least recognize it. Then I'm Thinking of Ending Things takes the fifth spot in Adapted Screenplay, a slot that seems mostly up for grabs at this point. I think the Charlie Kaufman flick will get it given his Oscar history and the film's numerous mentions from critic groups so far.

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. One Night in Miami
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Regardless of what happens, I feel pretty confident that The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win editing. They've gone for political dramas of this kind in the past here and the film's jumping from present (aka 1968) to past will probably be all they need. 

Best Cinematography

1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Malcolm & Marie

Mank has seemingly fallen off a bit for this awards season, as reactions to it have proven that the film's style isn't something that the Academy is crazy for. However, this category could still easily be its guaranteed win because of its black & white, classic Hollywood feel. 

I'll briefly explain that last slot while I'm at it, as Malcom & Marie is being released in 2021, but before the deadline the Oscars have this time around. And given that it is shot on film and also in black and white, the odds certainly favor this one.

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Midnight Sky
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

The Academy loves Pixar music, and now with previous Oscar-winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross here for Soul, it's undeniable that this will be our frontrunner.

The Personal History of David Copperfield I admit might be more wishful thinking here, but I think that it could easily appeal to the Academy given that Fox Search–oh excuse me, Searchlight Productions (R.I.P. Fox) knows how to campaign their films. I think this one's period piece charm could pull through here given that it could get in other technical categories already.

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" - One Night in Miami
2. "Wear Your Crown" - The Prom
3. "Seen" - The Life Ahead
4. "Hear My Voice" - The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Free" - The One and Only Ivan

Best Production Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Mulan
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield
5. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
5. Emma.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has received far more attention overall outside of its performances, and given its praise I could see it swinging in to big technical victories in the three categories above over Mank. The fact that it's set entirely in one building could play against it in Production Design, but I think the Academy will overlook that and feel more won over by its depression times replication.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Wonder Woman 1984
4. Sonic the Hedgehog
5. Greyhound

This is an interesting category this year, to say the least. Overall I'd still guess that Tenet will win here, as it easily has the most going for it compared to the competition. The Midnight Sky has been predicted as a probable winner also, but I don't see the Academy going for that over VFX work in a Nolan film. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the George Clooney even missed here and only got in for Desplat's score.

Wonder Woman 1984 I think will just get in here by default for being what's probably the only superhero film in the mix here. Sonic the Hedgehog could be nominated purely because of a lack of options, and it helps that it was one of the more popular releases last year. I for one hope it gets in purely to offer something for its VFX team that got laid off after completing it, and it would also be funny because... it's Sonic the Hedgehog.

That fifth spot is basically up for grabs, and I'll go with Greyhound for the time being given Tom Hanks and it being a war movie.

Best Sound

1. News of the World
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Mank

News of the World looks like it's headed to be a significant tech player this year, and the now combined sound category seems to be its best bet. Especially given that the other contenders aren't exactly ideal winners here; Mank and Soul could be notable, but don't seem like ideal winners. Tenet, the predicted VFX winner, seems like a likely nominee, but it's sound design being it's most criticized part will certainly play against it. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom could be very possible, but a film so similar to the style of a play seems unlikely to win here. Thus, Paul Greengrass' western with Tom Hanks is the most realistic option at the moment.

Best Animated Film

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. The Willoughbys
5. The Croods: A New Age

Pixar is Pixar. Duh. I still don't think Onward will get nominated, though. Now in it's place I have The Croods: A New Age which I wouldn't be surprised would get nominated purely because of how it embraced a theatrical release. It's predecessor got nominated after all, so it's certainly in the picture for this one.

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Boys State
3. Totally Under Control
4. The Dissident
5. Collective

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo vadis, Aida?
3. Dear Comrades
4. I'm No Longer Here
5. Night of the Kings

Film Review - Tenet (2020)

Man, it's been a while, and wouldn't you know it, we're still in this mess. But, that isn't stopping Christopher Nolan from rolling in with some fresh 70mm prints of his latest work to lead the reopening of movie theaters across the world, paving the way for further exposure..... and disappointment!

I like Nolan, I really do. I haven't seen all of his films, but what I have watched I've liked a great deal, especially the high and emotional tension of Dunkirk and the ingenious gimmick of Memento. Now we have Tenet, a film where time is key, as in time we'll never get back because of how dull it feels.

In all seriousness, the time within the film feels like a total waste. There are some genuinely well done parts of it in regards to plot points I won't spoil here, but for the most part it's crazy potential feels unrealized. We get some cool glimpses of it as I said, but it never goes beyond much that, feeling strangely surface level and ultimately adding up to very little satisfying payoff. It simply doesn't serve as an interesting plot device in most cases, seeming more like it's there to make the film seem incredibly cool as a means to lure audiences in... only to give them something far less compelling than one would hope.

If anything, the time is best done in the action scenes, which are certainly the best part of the film. Nolan still does a good enough job directing some good fights that are pretty and often interesting to watch with the said time aspect, and some very well-done, low key visual effects are present to boot. The score, this time by Black Panther's Ludwig Göransson, rather than Zimmer as is typical with Nolan, does a good job of fitting the mood and adding to the action.

I also must hand it to the cast, they do a good job of selling what they're given. No, not you Kenneth Branagh, you're just awful and horribly miscast. But, John David Washington does a solid enough job of leading the film, with Robert Pattinson making for good support. Though it's Elizabeth Debicki who shines the most here with a well-realized. It's just shame that they're all bogged down by what they have to work with... which is what leads me to the screenplay.

Nolan has always been seen as a better director than screenwriter, but his work for Tenet is just pathetic. All of the characters feel disposable, being incredibly underdeveloped to the point where there is no reason to care for them, with cliches and forced humor galore. They simply serve as a means for their to be a plot, and no interesting character or well-developed emotional depth were given to them in turn.

It worsens an already weak experience by taking what doesn't work to being with and adding another poor piece to it. In turn, everything around is overshadowed by what should be elevating it. Plenty of nicely executed work on the technical side seems put off to the side to satisfy an underwhelming narrative that simply doesn't deserve it. That, my friends, it what we call a true waste of... talent... and a lot of time!

So, there you have it. A Christoper Nolan film that is all show and no tell. It gives you something cool to look at, yet there is hardly anything interesting about it. As a result, much of the film's strengths are hidden behind the deeply undercooked aspects that should've made Tenet a true knockout. But instead we get a film that offers a glimpse at something that could've been truly fascinating, and it lands flat on its face thinking that it's brilliant as it sounds. Such a shame.

Final Grade: C-

Film Review - Hard Eight (1997)

Long before the pudding, oil, and poisonous mushrooms, now acclaimed writer and director Paul Thomas Anderson was rolling dice with some early-on collaborators in his directorial debut, often considered the weakest of his filmography. Character study Hard Eight can't seem to get much of a break, bombing pretty badly on an already small budget upon release and not seeing a ton of additional traction since, despite Anderson's growing acclaim and fandom. So, normally, most who haven't seen it would possibly consider it a growing pain that many great directors have early on, like Stanley Kubrick's Fear and Desire or Martin Scorsese's Boxcar Bertha, but there's far more to Hard Eight than what it may be given.

What's perhaps most noticeable about the film is how much of a stacked cast Anderson was able to accumulate for his first film, with famed comedic actor John C. Reilly, future Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow, and cheeseburger loving Pulp Fiction star Samuel L. Jackson all present and giving solid, memorable work. But the name up front in Hard Eight is the lesser appreciated Philip Baker Hall, who is simply incredible here as a fatherly and mysterious gambler in a performance that almost single handedly carries the film with his effective and unforgettable approach.

Notice how I say "almost single handedly" there, because Anderson clearly knew how to make a captivating and unique picture from the very start. The film's is oozing with energy in scenes where characters are working to get things done, creating for ever so satisfying build-ups through sharp editing and use of fantastic score by Jon Brion and Michael Penn. And in other scenes of uncertainty and suspense, tension is created excellently purely through the cast's efforts and dialogue that make sense of the gravity of the situation while still showing how their character's own flaws are crucial to how things are resolved.

Though, as a directorial debut, some issues are inevitable, particularly with some plot points being finished up, albeit not in the most satisfying ways, and the pacing may come off as jarring in the second half. But such problems, while still present, are more forgivable with how the film revolves around Philip Baker Hall's character, Sydney. His personality and deeper character are shown excellently with his interactions with others and his approach to them, demonstrating a softer person beneath as well as a darker side to himself that he prefers to keep to himself at all costs. He makes for an unforgettable lead character that Anderson's later work would be known for and built upon.

Even with a shakier reputation than most of the films from Paul Thomas Anderson, Hard Eight is no bad bet, as it offers an engaging and fascinating experience as one would expect from one of the best working today. One can only hope that its love grows overtime, hopefully to the point where it actually gets a Blu-Ray release, but for now at least a great film is still before us.

Final Grade: A

Oscars 2021 - June Predictions

Uh... well, this has been an eventful past few months, to say the least. The reasons being I think are pretty obvious, but the ones I'll discuss will of course be in regards to the Oscars. So, here, I will attempt to do some predictions as I would normally do and discuss some of the changes in the process. So stand back, ladies and gentlemen, I'm gonna try and take a stab at what's probably the most uncertain field for an Awards Season ever.

Best Picture

1. Mank
2. Annette
3. Dune
4. Harry Haft
5. The French Dispatch
6. Tenet
7. Ammonite
8. Soul

First off, it's worth mentioning that I hope we can consider all of these 2020 releases, with the eligibility period being extended to the end of February 2021, because apparently good movies are only released during Awards season? It's a pretty poor move, especially if most of the nominated films for a ceremony for 2020 films are 2021 releases. In that case, what was the point of allowing straight to VOD and streaming films eligible? Maybe they'll be released elsewhere before the years end so they can count as 2020 films, considering that this all seems to be the biggest issues in the United States.

Speaking of straight to streaming films, that makes this the year for a Netflix film to win, particularly Mank, a biographical film about a Citizen Kane co-writer from a beloved director who still hasn't won with Gary Oldman helming the lead. If not, then Amazon has us covered with Annette, a musical from Holy Motors director Leos Carax staring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard, which could easily be a hit.

But if we are going off of theatrical releases, then Dune and Tenet are the best bets. Dune in particular, since it's not coming until later this year, is from an already nominated and well established director, and the film itself seems very ambitious. Tenet is lower because Nolan seems to think he can get things cleared up by the end of July, which is... not possible. But I could still see the film getting enough love to bypass what could easily be poor box office numbers and succeed with viewers.

Best Director

1. David Fincher - Mank
2. Leos Carax - Annette
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune
4. Barry Levinson - Harry Haft
5. Wes Anderson - The French Dispatch

Anderson is one I could see missing based mainly on gut feeling, but right now I believe he's a safer bet than Nolan for reasons previously stated, plus another one I'll get to in a bit...

Best Lead Actor

1. Ben Foster - Harry Haft
2. Adam Driver - Annette
3. Gary Oldman - Mank
4. Anthony Hopkins - The Father
5. John David Washington - Tenet

Ben Foster being a highly esteemed actor who still has yet to get an Oscar nomination has found what may be the part he needs as the titular role in the film about a boxer forced to fight in Holocaust concentration camps trying to find his first love in his life after the war. And from Barry Levinson no less, the director of Best Picture winner Rain Man; this seems like the perfect formula for Foster to get his due.

Driver I'm sure will get plenty of love for his turn in Annette, given how close he was to victory last year. Oldman and Hopkins being veteran winners in very baity roles helps, Hopkins in particular has already been seen and has received tons of praise. Then Washington is one I bet on as while I predict his film to underperform awards wise, I believe he'll have the love he needs to get in backing him.

Best Lead Actress

1. Marion Cotillard - Annette
2. Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Kate Winslet - Ammonite
4. Jessie Buckley - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
5. Jennifer Hudson - Respect

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Burke - Mank
2. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
3. Bill Murray - On the Rocks
4. Danny DeVito - Harry Haft
5. Forest Whitaker - Respect

Still have Burke as Orson Welles as my bet here, but let's talk about Delroy Lindo. A lot of talk has been going on about whether he's leading or supporting. With more screen time than anyone else in the film, but its also arguably an ensemble piece. My bet is that Netflix will go with supporting, unfortunately, because of the ensemble nature of the film and the fact that Lead Actor already has some contenders that will be hard to match. However, given that he has plenty of support backing him, it's possible that a leading campaign could work out instead.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan - Ammonite
2. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Vicky Krieps - Harry Haft
4. Meryl Streep - The Prom
5. Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Best Original Screenplay

1. Mank
2. Ammonite
3. Annette
4. Soul
5. Da 5 Bloods

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The French Dispatch
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Dune
4. Next Goal Wins
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

This category looks to be pretty barren this year, and The French Dispatch is supposedly based off of real newspaper stories, so Fox Searchlight would be silly not to run it here. Next Goal Wins and The Personal History of David Copperfield are really just films that could be swapped out with others here. However, I do feel that both could easily be here, especially with good word surround Copperfield and Waititi helming Next Goal Wins, which could actually be a bigger player in general, but given how uncertain things are right now, it's best to just wait and see what happens.

Best Film Editing

1. Harry Haft
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

A boxing/wrestling based film seems to be the kind of work that would impress Academy voters the most, a la Raging Bull, but still keep an eye on Dune, which is undoubtedly going to be a very big player in terms of the technical categories.

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. Annette
3. Tenet
4. The French Dispatch
5. Mank

Best Original Score

1. Annette
2. Dune
3. Tenet
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

Best Original Song

1. Annette
2. No Time to Die
3. Soul
4. West Side Story
5. The Prom

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. Annette
5. West Side Story

Best Costume Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. West Side Story
5. Mulan

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Hillbilly Elegy
2. Dune
3. Death on the Nile
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Tenet
3. Black Widow
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Call of the Wild

Best Sound

1. Tenet
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Soul

No more Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, just Best Sound. It's unfortunate given that the two are fundamentally different, and had many split wins in past years, including last with 1917 winning Sound Mixing and Ford v Ferrari winning Sound Editing. But, it is what it is, and with the one category now, my guess would be Tenet, because I can't see a Nolan picture not winning a single tech award nowadays, and Sound may be the ticket it needs.

Film Review - Clue (1985)

It's usually not a good sign when a movie is based off of a game, and most would certainly assume the same with Jonathan Lynn's Clue, based off the classic board game and brining over its characters such as Mr. Green, Mrs. White, and, of course, Rich Uncle Pennyba–err, I mean Professor Plum. However, Clue's origins were just a red herring, as while this is undoubtedly a game, it's one that uses it to its full advantage.

The film is hilarious all the way through, mostly in part thanks to the cast. The entire ensemble undoubtedly had a blast here; everyone makes the most of every moment and are entirely aware of the film's nature, particularly Tim Curry who brings to life a butler as zany and entertaining as they come. Simply put, Clue is made what it is thanks to the efforts of its cast.

But that isn't to shame the rest of the film, as its comedic efforts on its own work wonders. It doesn't take itself seriously in the slightest, trading mystery for comedy. This admittedly does take away for what could've made for some great whodunnit elements (apart from maybe the end), but it doesn't kill with cluelessness in the studio, not at all. It takes the situations and setting it's given and works with it in ways that allow for its antics to ensue. Every moment offers more than a good laugh with how they are made with the idea of keeping entertaining tension at hand.

However, the film is somewhat lacking in story development, with the screenplay setting up part of a story and having other parts somewhat interrupt it. But this can be forgiven because the writing still achieves what it sets out to do, making up for some underdevelopment with an intriguing enough mystery that is helped by how humor is mixed into the equation. It's not a perfect screenplay, but the areas where it does work do so quite well, and embraces the wackiness at hand more so.

Ultimately, what was initially met with mixed reception and poor box office numbers has rightfully earned its title as a cult classic. Where it lacks a fully intriguing mystery, and makes up for in the humor and cast chemistry that is among the best of its time for a comedy. It's possibly the best adaption of any game out there, which may be a low as a bar as they come, but Clue is a diamond in the rough worth anyone's time. Now, if you excuse me, I'm gonna go home and... watch a movie, I guess.

Final Grade: B+