Oscars 2022 - First Predictions

It's later than I typically do this, but with TIFF in action and Telluride and Venice wrapped up, now feels like a good time to throw in my no-confidence yet still kinda have an idea of what could end up happening Oscar predictions. Let's go:

Best Picture

1. The Humans
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. The Hand of God
5. Belfast
6. Licorice Pizza
7. Spencer
8. Dune
9. Cyrano
10. The Survivor

Best Director

1. Paolo Sorrentino for The Hand of God
2. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
3. Joel Coen for The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
5. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

Best Lead Actor

1. Ben Foster in The Survivor
2. Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
4. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
5. Will Smith in King Richard

Best Lead Actress

1. Kristen Stewart in Spencer
2. Haley Bennett in Cyrano
3. Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
4. Jennifer Hudson in Respect
5. Jennifer Lawrence in Don't Look Up

Best Supporting Actor

1. Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza
2. Richard Jenkins in The Humans
3. Corey Hawkins in The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Danny DeVito in The Survivor
5. Jonah Hill in Don't Look Up

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
2. Caitriona Balfe in Belfast
3. Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Jayne Houdyshell in The Humans
5. Vicky Krieps in The Survivor

Best Original Screenplay

1. Belfast
2. Licorice Pizza
3. Spencer
4. The Hand of God
5. Last Night in Soho

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Humans
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Dune
5. Passing

Best Film Editing

1. The Survivor
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. The Hand of God
4. The Humans
5. Belfast

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Hand of God
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Spencer

Best Original Score

1. Spencer
2. Dune
3. The French Dispatch
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Licorice Pizza

Best Original Song

1. "Colombia, Mi Encanto" from Encanto
2. "Be Alive" from King Richard
3. "No Time to Die" from No Time to Die
4. "Beyond the Shore" from CODA
5. "So May We Start" from Annette

Best Production Design

1. Cyrano
2. Dune
3. Spencer
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Belfast

Best Costume Design

1. Cyrano
2. Spencer
3. Dune
4. Cruella
5. House of Gucci

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Dune
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Cruella
4. Cyrano
5. House of Gucci

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Eternals
3. Godzilla vs. Kong
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
5. Nightmare Alley

Best Sound

1. Cyrano
2. Dune
3. The Survivor
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Nobody

Best International Film

1. The Hand of God
2. A Hero
3. Parallel Mothers
4. Happening
5. 7 Prisoners

Best Animated Film

1. Encanto
2. Luca
3. Flee
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
5. Where is Anne Frank?

Oscars 2021 - Final Predictions

This is it, folks. Here are my final predictions for the 2021 Oscars.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. The Father
6. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Mank

I do feel a bit conflicted about playing it safe and going with what's won everything so far for reasons I'll explain later regarding the runner-up here, but given it's PGA win and it's editing nomination here, I feel safe enough to stick with Nomadland.

Best Director

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland
2. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
3. Emerald Fennel for Promising Young Woman
4. David Fincher for Mank
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round

Best Lead Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
4. Steven Yeun in Minari
5. Gary Oldman in Mank

Boseman has the advantage here, having Golden Globe and SAG wins, but I really think Hopkins' recent support will help him take the award home. I don't just mean his BAFTA win, but his praise in general and many anonymous Oscar ballots from voters (which, admittedly, aren't the best way to predict) dumbing down to "Boseman will win, so I voted Hopkins instead" really makes me think that he can take it.

Best Lead Actress

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
4. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman

I could see this being anyone's game (except Kirby's, sorry). Davis has the SAG win, but SAG awards her at virtually any given chance, so I don't see her winning beyond that, especially since Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has no Best Picture nomination. Day I really don't see being more than a Golden Globes thing, but I see her as a more realistic option given that there is passion for her work despite her film being not particularly good. McDormand has BAFTA, though given the circumstances with BAFTA this year I likely just shows that she would be the winner if this year weren't as competitive, though I can still see her pull through. I'm sticking with Mulligan, though, because of her film's love with other nominations, her being a crucial part of her film's success in the first place and two of the other frontrunners (Davis and McDormand) having Oscars already.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
3. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah
4. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami

I guess there's a slight, and I mean slight, possibility that Raci could upset if passion for Sound of Metal pulls through, but overall this will easily be Kaluuya's night.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari
2. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Olivia Colman in The Father
4. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
5. Amanda Seyfried in Mank

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

Well this is a category where I'm ready to be wrong. Yes, Promising Young Woman certainly has the advantage in Original Screenplay, but I'm sensing an upset. It helps already that actors love Sorkin (given Chicago 7's SAG Ensemble win) and there have been times where the Oscar winner here splits from the WGA winner, and I can easily see Sorkin getting his second win through that. I also wouldn't be surprised if Minari surprised by chance, but I'll just take my chances and place my bet on Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

Regardless of how well either Chicago 7 or Nomadland do, I don't think this is a category Nomadland absolutely needs to win for it to take Best Picture. I do think that voters will go with The Father here given the BAFTA win and that it's a much more dialogue-focused film than Zhao's film.

Best Film Editing

1. Sound of Metal
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. The Father
4. Nomadland
5. Promising Young Woman

I feel like this category will decide a lot here, because if ACE winner Chicago 7 does win here, then I think that it also takes Picture and will for sure take Screenplay. If literally anything else wins, however, then Nomadland still reigns supreme. I'll stick with BAFTA winner here, Sound of Metal, which has the Sound nomination correlation advantage and BAFTA being the more accurate predictor here compared to ACE as of late. I should also note that the BAFTA/ACE split opens up the possibility for an upset, which I think would be The Father, but I'll just say Sound of Metal to play it safe.

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. News of the World
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. News of the World
5. Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
2. "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
3. "Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead
4. "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah
5. "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Tenet
4. The Father
5. News of the World

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Emma.
3. Mank
4. Mulan
5. Pinocchio

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Pinocchio
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Mank
5. Emma.

I could see an upset happening in either of the two categories above. It's difficult to see Emma. overtaking Ma Rainey in costumes since it has won everything there. As for Makeup, maybe Pinocchio can overtake Ma Rainey just because of how impressive and showy it is, or even Hillbilly Elegy if the Academy decides they really hate us, but most voters likely have not even seen Pinocchio or won't bother with Hillbilly Elegy at this point, which would give Ma Rainey the advantage again, so I'm sticking by that for both of the above.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Love and Monsters
5. The One and Only Ivan

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. The rest

Best Animated Film

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
5. Over the Moon

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Collective
4. Better Days
5. The Man Who Sold His Skin

Best Documentary Feature

1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Time
3. Crip Camp
4. Collective
5. The Mole Agent

Best Live Action Short

1. Two Distant Strangers
2. Feeling Through
3. The Letter Room
4. The Present
5. White Eye

Best Animated Short

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Opera
4. Genius Loci
5. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short

1. A Concerto is a Conversation
2. Colette
3. A Love Song for Latasha
4. Hunger Ward
5. Do Not Split

Oscars 2021 - Final Nominations Predictions

So far, this easily been the most unpredictable awards season in some time. From BAFTA nominations throwing everything out the window and being completely different, the most diverse acting competition field in sometime, and a second female director finally on track to win Oscar night, the race is unique to say the least. But now, we arrive at nominations day tomorrow, where our hopes will be crushed, crushed, and somewhat brought to reality. So, let's begin.

Best Picture

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Mank
6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
7. One Night in Miami...
8. The Father

If Nine or Ten....

      9. Sound of Metal

    10. Soul

Next in Line: Judas and the Black Messiah

Dark Horse: The Mauritanian

I'll go with 8 spots here, though 9 spots is also very realistic, unless Academy voters were especially dismissive towards 2020 in general due to all the changes. The Father seems like the most likely candidate for being #8 despite missing some notable guilds, Hopkins and Colman will definitely draw attention, and it does sound like it's getting a good push from editors. I'm not wholly confident on Judas and the Black Messiah getting in because I fear the late release will hold back some Academy voters, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. I can still see Soul getting in through passion votes, especially since it's seems to be Pixar's most universally liked film in a while, though I wouldn't bet money on it. As for Sound of Metal, I have a feeling that they may not entirely go for it, but regardless it is still a serious contender.

Best Director

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland
2. David Fincher for Mank
3. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
4. Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Florian Zeller for The Father

Next in Line: Lee Isaac Chung for Minari

Dark Horse: Shaka King for Judas and the Black Messiah

This is Zhao's win, no ifs, ands or buts. As for the rest, Fincher and Fennell seem like safe bets unless both films from them really underperform, which is unlikely. As for Zeller, I think the film could easily gather the necessary passion votes I mentioned here before as well, which I would say unfortunately boots out Lee Isaac Chung, as I find it hard to see Sorkin miss (especially after ASC nominations) and I feel that Minari may not be the directors film to come to mind for the directors branch, but here's hoping that I'm wrong.

Best Lead Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman in Mank
5. Steven Yeun in Minari

Next in Line: Tahar Rahim in The Mauritanian

Dark Horse: Mads Mikkelsen in Another Round

Boseman, Hopkins, and Ahmed (unless they're ridiculous and didn't bother with Sound of Metal) all seem like locks. Oldman I think is very close to one as well despite having less Critics, particularly with his SAG nomination, given that Mank was absent from Ensemble and Supporting Actress there, being a big sign of his support. Lindo's have sadly weakened do to snubs from major award bodies, but passion votes could still get him in, and Mads Mikkelsen's turn in Another Round could also garner such votes, especially since the film is a given for International film. Yeun is still the best bet for the 5th spot, given the SAG nomination and Minari's growing support as the season continues. He's still vulnerable in that his performance is definitely more subtle compared to his competition, but I think he'll pull through.

Best Lead Actress

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman

Next in Line: Rosamund Pike in I Care a Lot

Dark Horse: Yeri Han in Minari

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami
2. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods
5. David Strathairn in Nomadland

Next in Line: Paul Raci in Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: Alan Kim in Minari

Top 3 are definitely guarantees at this rate. Boseman I think will get in based on SAG support alone, and I do find it a bit hard to believe that Da 5 Bloods will be shut out entirely. As for #5 here, I'm guessing they'll go with the safe veteran pick instead with David Strathairn who, despite not having a significant presence in Nomadland, could easily garner the necessary support because of love for Nomadland to land the nomination rather than some of the more universally loved contenders. And hey, maybe Hollywood crime boss Jared Leto will get in again so the actor's branch can pay back a favor. Probably not, but you never know.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Yuh-jung Youn in Minari
2. Olivia Colman in The Father
3. Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian
4. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
5. Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman

Next in Line: Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Dark Horse: Dominique Fishback in Judas and the Black Messiah

This category is a mess this year. Maria Bakalova has the advantage with the Critics Choice win and SAG and BAFTA nominations to boot, but sadly I don't think the majority of the acting branch will buy into such a comedic-leaning performance, especially one from a Borat film. Glenn Close I don't see making it either after she lost the Golden Globe, especially given her film's rotten reception. Burstyn I think has the veteran advantage and her monologue will definitely catch the attention of voters, so I'll take the risk. The Mauritanian's surprising success so far really points at some kind of nomination, so that ought to be the film's Golden Globe winner. Seyfried is definitely more vulnerable given the SAG snub, but it still feels safe to predict her given Oldman's likelihood for Lead Actor. 

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. Another Round

Next in Line: Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: Palm Springs

That fifth spot is open to many possibilities. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal are obviously the most notable contenders for it, but, given my thinking that both will underperform, I think we'll see something more "out there" get in. Soul and Another Round are the ones that come to mind, particularly with the Academy's liking for Pixar films here and the international film frontrunner with a bunch of universal love gets bound for a nomination like this, kind of like A Separation. I'll go with Another Round given the BAFTA nomination here that was not a juried category like Directing and Lead Actor (which it got in for there). It's also possible that Mank could miss, but I wouldn't make such a bet given how it's hit all the right marks to get in here (minus WGA, which it was ineligible for).

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Next in Line: The White Tiger

Dark Horse: First Cow

News of the World's support seems to have waned significantly since it's PGA miss, which doesn't surprise me that much since I've seen hardly anyone who actually cares about it. It's likely that it'll only be a player in technical categories instead given Guild support. As for the 5th screenplay spot, the Golden Globe Comedy winner and surprise PGA nominee Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is easily the safest bet now, and it helps that the first Borat was nominated here as well.

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Sound of Metal
4. The Father
5. Minari

Next in Line: Nomadland

Dark Horse: One Night in Miami

I'm leaving out Nomadland, mainly because I still think The Trial of the Chicago 7 has the advantage in Best Picture already, and I think an editing snub would solidify that, plus the editing of some of its competitors is more showy.

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

Next in Line: Minari

Dark Horse: Dear Comrades!

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. The Midnight Sky
5. The Little Things

Next in Line: News of the World

Dark Horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7

I feel like the Leto nominations at Golden Globes and SAG are building up for something for The Little Things on Monday morning, and we all know the Academy can't resist Thomas Newman as much as they don't want to reward him. I'd say News of the World gets the boot then as, once again, it's enthusiasm has depleted significantly recently and James Newton Howard hasn't been nominated in over a decade already. The Midnight Sky could technically miss instead, but I don't see Alexandre Desplat missing in this day and age.

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
2. "Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead
3. "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. "Turntables" from All In: The Fight for Democracy
5. "Rain Song" from Minari

Next in Line: "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah

Dark Horse: "Make it Work" from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Best Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

Next in Line: The Father

Dark Horse: Rebecca

Here's hoping David Copperfield shows up somewhere, which I think is more likely here as a Hail, Caeser! type nominee given how many better-known contenders costume design has. Mulan I think would have a better chance of getting in here than in costumes also for similar reasons, and it helps that The Lord of the Rings trilogy's production designer helms it also.

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. News of the World
5. Ammonite

Next in Line: The Personal History of David Copperfield

Dark Horse: The Glorias

Lots of possibilities for this category. The top three I think are pretty secure, though a possible Emma. shutout wouldn't shock me. I also find it hard to leave News of the World out after Mark Bridges surprised us all last year for Joker. Ammonite is certainly helped by Michael O'Connor's success in nominations, particularly with each of his BAFTA nominations leading to an Oscar nomination for him. The Glorias could also surprise, given this branch's love for Julie Taymor and Sandy Powell.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Pinocchio
4. Mank
5. The Glorias

Next in Line: Emma.

Dark Horse: Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

The Glorias got good word from its showcase at the Academy's Makeup and Hairstyling bakeoff, particularly with prosthetic aging for Julian Moore. And given Julie Taymor's record with the Academy as previously mentioned, I think this could be the place where it shows up.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Welcome to Chechnya
5. The One and Only Ivan

Next in Line: Mank

Dark Horse: Love and Monsters

Anything could miss here this year, including my top two predictions. I'm not super confident on Mank getting in since it's VFX isn't as obvious as its competition, plus that BAFTA miss here as well. 

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. News of the World
3. Soul
4. Nomadland
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Next in Line: Greyhound

Dark Horse: The Outpost

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. The Croods: A New Age
4. Over the Moon
5. The Willoughbys

Next in Line: Onward

Dark Horse: Bombay Rose

Over the Moon has actually taken a bit of a hit after Annie snubs... but I think that and The Willoughbys still get in over Onward. The reasons being, 1) There's never been a year with more than one Pixar film nominated here, and, 2) the Pixar film that people stop carrying about pretty quickly (ex. Monsters University, The Good Dinosaur, Finding Dory) typically misses also. It's a tricky bet, but I'll take my chances.

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Two of Us
4. Dear Comrades!
5. A Sun

Next in Line: La Llorona (Strikes me as not the Academy's thing)

Dark Horse: The Man Who Sold His Skin

Best Documentary Film

1. Time
2. Collective
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. Boys State
5. My Octopus Teacher

Next in Line: Dick Johnson is Dead

Dark Horse: The Painter and the Thief

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room
2. The Human Voice
3. Two Distant Strangers
4. White Eye
5. The Van

Next in Line: Da Yie

Dark Horse: The Kicksled Choir

Best Animated Short Film

1. Burrow
2. If Anything Happens I Love You
3. Opera
4. The Snail and the Whale
5. Traces

Next in Line: Out

Dark Horse: Genius Loci

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Love Song for Latasha
2. Hunger Ward
3. A Concerto is a Conversation
4. The Speed Cubers
5. Call Center Blues

Next in Line: Colette

Dark Horse: What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Oscars 2021 - January Predictions

Yes, I am alive. 

I apologize for my... well... extended absence. I had been focusing more on other things over the past few months and my motivation to write here has been a bit down recently, which is why there's only been one post within the past 6 months. But - BUT - now I am back and ready to predict. There's plenty to discuss with the various changes there have been since my last predictions batch (not all of which I'll touch on), and with the Golden Globes/Screen Actors Guild awards nominations being about a month away, there is no time to waste.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. One Night in Miami
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Mank
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Soul

Now that so much time has passed, I finally feel confident to not only see Nomadland as a major contender, but also as what may be the next Best Picture winner. Mank seems to fallen off a bit despite still being of large notice, which I'll touch on more a bit later, which leaves that and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as the big ones left.

Although Chicago 7 hits all the right marks for the Academy, I'm going with Nomadland as it has the universal love to back it up, while Chicago 7 is more divisive among people despite many leaning positive. Also, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Academy members picked it purely to spite Netflix movies.

One Night in Miami I think is also worth keeping an eye on, as I could see it gaining plenty of momentum as awards season heats up. For now, however, I'll stick with my current top 2 as the big contenders.

Best Director

1. Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
3. David Fincher - Mank
4. Regina King - One Night in Miami
5. Florian Zeller - The Father

Although Zhao's work is what I consider the frontrunner so far, I think Sorkin makes for a more realistic directing winner currently. The Trial of the Chicago 7 simply appears to be a far more conventional pick for directing here, and the Academy certainly hasn't been stranger to Best Picture/Director splits as of late. I wouldn't be surprised if Zhao won here and Chicago 7 got Best Picture instead, though.

Best Lead Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Gary Oldman in Mank
4. Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
5. Steven Yeun in Minari

Here's the big one, ladies and gentlemen. The late and great Chadwick Boseman is clearly the most popular mention for this category at the moment. But I believe Anthony Hopkins could secure a second win with what is already a very appealing type of performance for the Academy.

Many seem to think Oldman may miss out, but if the film is still going to make it in for Picture, Directing, so on and so forth, than I find it impossible for him to miss out.

Lindo I fear could make it in for everything but then miss the Oscar nomination (maybe this year's BAFTA curse?), but his work and the praise its garnered is far too formidable for him to simply miss, so here's hoping he pulls through because he deserves it.

That fifth spot is a tricky guess, and I'm betting on Steven Yeun pulling through. The other big contender is Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal, whose film I simply don't see pulling through the weight of awards season. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor. Yeun, on the other hand, has a film that is getting high notices across the board and could easily be the indie surprise of the season. It very well could be that he'd make history as the first Korean actor nominated here.

Best Lead Actress

1. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Meryl Streep in The Prom

Davis, Kirby, and McDormand are presumably locked in at this point here, and of those three I believe Kirby will since her role relies on emotions that the Academy loves to award time and time again. It helps that she is the only one of the three not to have won before.

For those last two spots, Andra Day I think could pull through and get nominated for a role that could certainly get the Academy's attention, assuming it releases on time. And Streep is always a favorite of the Academy's, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Golden Globes give The Prom the boost it needs to score her another nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Bill Murray in On the Rocks

Odom Jr. is my current frontrunner guess given his rising popularity as of late and his role certainly being the kind the Academy goes after. 

Behind him is Sacha Baron Cohen, who received high praise for his work in Chicago 7, and if the film really does take off this season as I predict, then it's bound to get double nominations here. If it goes that way, then Mark Rylance, a previous winner here for Bridge of Spies, would be my guess. 

Glynn Turman turned out a surprise win at the Los Angeles Film Critics Associations awards, and given Ma Rainey's Black Bottom's praise from critics, he's worth keeping an eye on. 

Then there's that fifth slot. I already mentioned my doubts about Paul Raci earlier, so he's out. Also being considered is Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah, but I'm currently having doubts that he'll be able to squeeze through, especially since his film is a later release. That leaves Bill Murray in On the Rocks, and although his film hasn't gotten a huge push, I think he could get in if he is able to pick up notice from notable and larger film critics groups like the National Board of Review.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman in The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
4. Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman
5. Helena Zengel in News of the World

Colman is the only realistic winner I can see here. Yuh-Jung will certainly have support but I doubt she'll get enough to pull ahead of bigger names. Seyfried has gotten plenty of praise for her part, but her role simply doesn't feel like an Oscar winning one at all. Burstyn makes sense as a returning veteran nominee and Zengel's being the rising star getting recognition makes sense, but neither seem to have paths towards a win. Thus Colman, poised to return following her 2018 win for her outstanding work in The Favourite, seems most realistic to win here.

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. Soul
5. Promising Young Woman

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. I'm Thinking of Ending Things

The two screenplay categories could easily decide the Best Picture winner this year. Minari could be the indie favorite that gets a sole Original Screenplay win, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 will undoubtedly be a more appealing film to Academy voters. If Minari does win, though, it will certainly block Chicago 7 from a Best Picture win.

Nomadland is a clear pick for Adapted Screenplay, but One Night in Miami could also surprise, but which ever one wins I think could easily be a Best Picture winner also.

As for the sole nominees in each category, Promising Young Woman is a film I don't think many Academy voters will buy, but I do think the screenplay branch will at least recognize it. Then I'm Thinking of Ending Things takes the fifth spot in Adapted Screenplay, a slot that seems mostly up for grabs at this point. I think the Charlie Kaufman flick will get it given his Oscar history and the film's numerous mentions from critic groups so far.

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. One Night in Miami
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Regardless of what happens, I feel pretty confident that The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win editing. They've gone for political dramas of this kind in the past here and the film's jumping from present (aka 1968) to past will probably be all they need. 

Best Cinematography

1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Malcolm & Marie

Mank has seemingly fallen off a bit for this awards season, as reactions to it have proven that the film's style isn't something that the Academy is crazy for. However, this category could still easily be its guaranteed win because of its black & white, classic Hollywood feel. 

I'll briefly explain that last slot while I'm at it, as Malcom & Marie is being released in 2021, but before the deadline the Oscars have this time around. And given that it is shot on film and also in black and white, the odds certainly favor this one.

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Midnight Sky
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

The Academy loves Pixar music, and now with previous Oscar-winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross here for Soul, it's undeniable that this will be our frontrunner.

The Personal History of David Copperfield I admit might be more wishful thinking here, but I think that it could easily appeal to the Academy given that Fox Search–oh excuse me, Searchlight Productions (R.I.P. Fox) knows how to campaign their films. I think this one's period piece charm could pull through here given that it could get in other technical categories already.

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" - One Night in Miami
2. "Wear Your Crown" - The Prom
3. "Seen" - The Life Ahead
4. "Hear My Voice" - The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Free" - The One and Only Ivan

Best Production Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Mulan
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield
5. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
5. Emma.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has received far more attention overall outside of its performances, and given its praise I could see it swinging in to big technical victories in the three categories above over Mank. The fact that it's set entirely in one building could play against it in Production Design, but I think the Academy will overlook that and feel more won over by its depression times replication.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Wonder Woman 1984
4. Sonic the Hedgehog
5. Greyhound

This is an interesting category this year, to say the least. Overall I'd still guess that Tenet will win here, as it easily has the most going for it compared to the competition. The Midnight Sky has been predicted as a probable winner also, but I don't see the Academy going for that over VFX work in a Nolan film. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the George Clooney even missed here and only got in for Desplat's score.

Wonder Woman 1984 I think will just get in here by default for being what's probably the only superhero film in the mix here. Sonic the Hedgehog could be nominated purely because of a lack of options, and it helps that it was one of the more popular releases last year. I for one hope it gets in purely to offer something for its VFX team that got laid off after completing it, and it would also be funny because... it's Sonic the Hedgehog.

That fifth spot is basically up for grabs, and I'll go with Greyhound for the time being given Tom Hanks and it being a war movie.

Best Sound

1. News of the World
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Mank

News of the World looks like it's headed to be a significant tech player this year, and the now combined sound category seems to be its best bet. Especially given that the other contenders aren't exactly ideal winners here; Mank and Soul could be notable, but don't seem like ideal winners. Tenet, the predicted VFX winner, seems like a likely nominee, but it's sound design being it's most criticized part will certainly play against it. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom could be very possible, but a film so similar to the style of a play seems unlikely to win here. Thus, Paul Greengrass' western with Tom Hanks is the most realistic option at the moment.

Best Animated Film

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. The Willoughbys
5. The Croods: A New Age

Pixar is Pixar. Duh. I still don't think Onward will get nominated, though. Now in it's place I have The Croods: A New Age which I wouldn't be surprised would get nominated purely because of how it embraced a theatrical release. It's predecessor got nominated after all, so it's certainly in the picture for this one.

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Boys State
3. Totally Under Control
4. The Dissident
5. Collective

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo vadis, Aida?
3. Dear Comrades
4. I'm No Longer Here
5. Night of the Kings

Film Review - Tenet (2020)

Man, it's been a while, and wouldn't you know it, we're still in this mess. But, that isn't stopping Christopher Nolan from rolling in with some fresh 70mm prints of his latest work to lead the reopening of movie theaters across the world, paving the way for further exposure..... and disappointment!

I like Nolan, I really do. I haven't seen all of his films, but what I have watched I've liked a great deal, especially the high and emotional tension of Dunkirk and the ingenious gimmick of Memento. Now we have Tenet, a film where time is key, as in time we'll never get back because of how dull it feels.

In all seriousness, the time within the film feels like a total waste. There are some genuinely well done parts of it in regards to plot points I won't spoil here, but for the most part it's crazy potential feels unrealized. We get some cool glimpses of it as I said, but it never goes beyond much that, feeling strangely surface level and ultimately adding up to very little satisfying payoff. It simply doesn't serve as an interesting plot device in most cases, seeming more like it's there to make the film seem incredibly cool as a means to lure audiences in... only to give them something far less compelling than one would hope.

If anything, the time is best done in the action scenes, which are certainly the best part of the film. Nolan still does a good enough job directing some good fights that are pretty and often interesting to watch with the said time aspect, and some very well-done, low key visual effects are present to boot. The score, this time by Black Panther's Ludwig Göransson, rather than Zimmer as is typical with Nolan, does a good job of fitting the mood and adding to the action.

I also must hand it to the cast, they do a good job of selling what they're given. No, not you Kenneth Branagh, you're just awful and horribly miscast. But, John David Washington does a solid enough job of leading the film, with Robert Pattinson making for good support. Though it's Elizabeth Debicki who shines the most here with a well-realized. It's just shame that they're all bogged down by what they have to work with... which is what leads me to the screenplay.

Nolan has always been seen as a better director than screenwriter, but his work for Tenet is just pathetic. All of the characters feel disposable, being incredibly underdeveloped to the point where there is no reason to care for them, with cliches and forced humor galore. They simply serve as a means for their to be a plot, and no interesting character or well-developed emotional depth were given to them in turn.

It worsens an already weak experience by taking what doesn't work to being with and adding another poor piece to it. In turn, everything around is overshadowed by what should be elevating it. Plenty of nicely executed work on the technical side seems put off to the side to satisfy an underwhelming narrative that simply doesn't deserve it. That, my friends, it what we call a true waste of... talent... and a lot of time!

So, there you have it. A Christoper Nolan film that is all show and no tell. It gives you something cool to look at, yet there is hardly anything interesting about it. As a result, much of the film's strengths are hidden behind the deeply undercooked aspects that should've made Tenet a true knockout. But instead we get a film that offers a glimpse at something that could've been truly fascinating, and it lands flat on its face thinking that it's brilliant as it sounds. Such a shame.

Final Grade: C-