Oscars 2021 - Final Nominations Predictions

So far, this easily been the most unpredictable awards season in some time. From BAFTA nominations throwing everything out the window and being completely different, the most diverse acting competition field in sometime, and a second female director finally on track to win Oscar night, the race is unique to say the least. But now, we arrive at nominations day tomorrow, where our hopes will be crushed, crushed, and somewhat brought to reality. So, let's begin.

Best Picture

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Mank
6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
7. One Night in Miami...
8. The Father

If Nine or Ten....

      9. Sound of Metal

    10. Soul

Next in Line: Judas and the Black Messiah

Dark Horse: The Mauritanian

I'll go with 8 spots here, though 9 spots is also very realistic, unless Academy voters were especially dismissive towards 2020 in general due to all the changes. The Father seems like the most likely candidate for being #8 despite missing some notable guilds, Hopkins and Colman will definitely draw attention, and it does sound like it's getting a good push from editors. I'm not wholly confident on Judas and the Black Messiah getting in because I fear the late release will hold back some Academy voters, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. I can still see Soul getting in through passion votes, especially since it's seems to be Pixar's most universally liked film in a while, though I wouldn't bet money on it. As for Sound of Metal, I have a feeling that they may not entirely go for it, but regardless it is still a serious contender.

Best Director

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland
2. David Fincher for Mank
3. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
4. Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Florian Zeller for The Father

Next in Line: Lee Isaac Chung for Minari

Dark Horse: Shaka King for Judas and the Black Messiah

This is Zhao's win, no ifs, ands or buts. As for the rest, Fincher and Fennell seem like safe bets unless both films from them really underperform, which is unlikely. As for Zeller, I think the film could easily gather the necessary passion votes I mentioned here before as well, which I would say unfortunately boots out Lee Isaac Chung, as I find it hard to see Sorkin miss (especially after ASC nominations) and I feel that Minari may not be the directors film to come to mind for the directors branch, but here's hoping that I'm wrong.

Best Lead Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman in Mank
5. Steven Yeun in Minari

Next in Line: Tahar Rahim in The Mauritanian

Dark Horse: Mads Mikkelsen in Another Round

Boseman, Hopkins, and Ahmed (unless they're ridiculous and didn't bother with Sound of Metal) all seem like locks. Oldman I think is very close to one as well despite having less Critics, particularly with his SAG nomination, given that Mank was absent from Ensemble and Supporting Actress there, being a big sign of his support. Lindo's have sadly weakened do to snubs from major award bodies, but passion votes could still get him in, and Mads Mikkelsen's turn in Another Round could also garner such votes, especially since the film is a given for International film. Yeun is still the best bet for the 5th spot, given the SAG nomination and Minari's growing support as the season continues. He's still vulnerable in that his performance is definitely more subtle compared to his competition, but I think he'll pull through.

Best Lead Actress

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman

Next in Line: Rosamund Pike in I Care a Lot

Dark Horse: Yeri Han in Minari

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami
2. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods
5. David Strathairn in Nomadland

Next in Line: Paul Raci in Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: Alan Kim in Minari

Top 3 are definitely guarantees at this rate. Boseman I think will get in based on SAG support alone, and I do find it a bit hard to believe that Da 5 Bloods will be shut out entirely. As for #5 here, I'm guessing they'll go with the safe veteran pick instead with David Strathairn who, despite not having a significant presence in Nomadland, could easily garner the necessary support because of love for Nomadland to land the nomination rather than some of the more universally loved contenders. And hey, maybe Hollywood crime boss Jared Leto will get in again so the actor's branch can pay back a favor. Probably not, but you never know.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Yuh-jung Youn in Minari
2. Olivia Colman in The Father
3. Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian
4. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
5. Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman

Next in Line: Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Dark Horse: Dominique Fishback in Judas and the Black Messiah

This category is a mess this year. Maria Bakalova has the advantage with the Critics Choice win and SAG and BAFTA nominations to boot, but sadly I don't think the majority of the acting branch will buy into such a comedic-leaning performance, especially one from a Borat film. Glenn Close I don't see making it either after she lost the Golden Globe, especially given her film's rotten reception. Burstyn I think has the veteran advantage and her monologue will definitely catch the attention of voters, so I'll take the risk. The Mauritanian's surprising success so far really points at some kind of nomination, so that ought to be the film's Golden Globe winner. Seyfried is definitely more vulnerable given the SAG snub, but it still feels safe to predict her given Oldman's likelihood for Lead Actor. 

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. Another Round

Next in Line: Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: Palm Springs

That fifth spot is open to many possibilities. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal are obviously the most notable contenders for it, but, given my thinking that both will underperform, I think we'll see something more "out there" get in. Soul and Another Round are the ones that come to mind, particularly with the Academy's liking for Pixar films here and the international film frontrunner with a bunch of universal love gets bound for a nomination like this, kind of like A Separation. I'll go with Another Round given the BAFTA nomination here that was not a juried category like Directing and Lead Actor (which it got in for there). It's also possible that Mank could miss, but I wouldn't make such a bet given how it's hit all the right marks to get in here (minus WGA, which it was ineligible for).

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Next in Line: The White Tiger

Dark Horse: First Cow

News of the World's support seems to have waned significantly since it's PGA miss, which doesn't surprise me that much since I've seen hardly anyone who actually cares about it. It's likely that it'll only be a player in technical categories instead given Guild support. As for the 5th screenplay spot, the Golden Globe Comedy winner and surprise PGA nominee Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is easily the safest bet now, and it helps that the first Borat was nominated here as well.

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Sound of Metal
4. The Father
5. Minari

Next in Line: Nomadland

Dark Horse: One Night in Miami

I'm leaving out Nomadland, mainly because I still think The Trial of the Chicago 7 has the advantage in Best Picture already, and I think an editing snub would solidify that, plus the editing of some of its competitors is more showy.

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

Next in Line: Minari

Dark Horse: Dear Comrades!

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. Minari
4. The Midnight Sky
5. The Little Things

Next in Line: News of the World

Dark Horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7

I feel like the Leto nominations at Golden Globes and SAG are building up for something for The Little Things on Monday morning, and we all know the Academy can't resist Thomas Newman as much as they don't want to reward him. I'd say News of the World gets the boot then as, once again, it's enthusiasm has depleted significantly recently and James Newton Howard hasn't been nominated in over a decade already. The Midnight Sky could technically miss instead, but I don't see Alexandre Desplat missing in this day and age.

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
2. "Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead
3. "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. "Turntables" from All In: The Fight for Democracy
5. "Rain Song" from Minari

Next in Line: "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah

Dark Horse: "Make it Work" from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Best Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

Next in Line: The Father

Dark Horse: Rebecca

Here's hoping David Copperfield shows up somewhere, which I think is more likely here as a Hail, Caeser! type nominee given how many better-known contenders costume design has. Mulan I think would have a better chance of getting in here than in costumes also for similar reasons, and it helps that The Lord of the Rings trilogy's production designer helms it also.

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma.
4. News of the World
5. Ammonite

Next in Line: The Personal History of David Copperfield

Dark Horse: The Glorias

Lots of possibilities for this category. The top three I think are pretty secure, though a possible Emma. shutout wouldn't shock me. I also find it hard to leave News of the World out after Mark Bridges surprised us all last year for Joker. Ammonite is certainly helped by Michael O'Connor's success in nominations, particularly with each of his BAFTA nominations leading to an Oscar nomination for him. The Glorias could also surprise, given this branch's love for Julie Taymor and Sandy Powell.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Pinocchio
4. Mank
5. The Glorias

Next in Line: Emma.

Dark Horse: Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

The Glorias got good word from its showcase at the Academy's Makeup and Hairstyling bakeoff, particularly with prosthetic aging for Julian Moore. And given Julie Taymor's record with the Academy as previously mentioned, I think this could be the place where it shows up.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Welcome to Chechnya
5. The One and Only Ivan

Next in Line: Mank

Dark Horse: Love and Monsters

Anything could miss here this year, including my top two predictions. I'm not super confident on Mank getting in since it's VFX isn't as obvious as its competition, plus that BAFTA miss here as well. 

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. News of the World
3. Soul
4. Nomadland
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Next in Line: Greyhound

Dark Horse: The Outpost

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. The Croods: A New Age
4. Over the Moon
5. The Willoughbys

Next in Line: Onward

Dark Horse: Bombay Rose

Over the Moon has actually taken a bit of a hit after Annie snubs... but I think that and The Willoughbys still get in over Onward. The reasons being, 1) There's never been a year with more than one Pixar film nominated here, and, 2) the Pixar film that people stop carrying about pretty quickly (ex. Monsters University, The Good Dinosaur, Finding Dory) typically misses also. It's a tricky bet, but I'll take my chances.

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Two of Us
4. Dear Comrades!
5. A Sun

Next in Line: La Llorona (Strikes me as not the Academy's thing)

Dark Horse: The Man Who Sold His Skin

Best Documentary Film

1. Time
2. Collective
3. Welcome to Chechnya
4. Boys State
5. My Octopus Teacher

Next in Line: Dick Johnson is Dead

Dark Horse: The Painter and the Thief

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room
2. The Human Voice
3. Two Distant Strangers
4. White Eye
5. The Van

Next in Line: Da Yie

Dark Horse: The Kicksled Choir

Best Animated Short Film

1. Burrow
2. If Anything Happens I Love You
3. Opera
4. The Snail and the Whale
5. Traces

Next in Line: Out

Dark Horse: Genius Loci

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Love Song for Latasha
2. Hunger Ward
3. A Concerto is a Conversation
4. The Speed Cubers
5. Call Center Blues

Next in Line: Colette

Dark Horse: What Would Sophia Loren Do?