Oscars 2021 - January Predictions

Yes, I am alive. 

I apologize for my... well... extended absence. I had been focusing more on other things over the past few months and my motivation to write here has been a bit down recently, which is why there's only been one post within the past 6 months. But - BUT - now I am back and ready to predict. There's plenty to discuss with the various changes there have been since my last predictions batch (not all of which I'll touch on), and with the Golden Globes/Screen Actors Guild awards nominations being about a month away, there is no time to waste.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. One Night in Miami
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Mank
6. The Father
7. Minari
8. Soul

Now that so much time has passed, I finally feel confident to not only see Nomadland as a major contender, but also as what may be the next Best Picture winner. Mank seems to fallen off a bit despite still being of large notice, which I'll touch on more a bit later, which leaves that and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as the big ones left.

Although Chicago 7 hits all the right marks for the Academy, I'm going with Nomadland as it has the universal love to back it up, while Chicago 7 is more divisive among people despite many leaning positive. Also, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Academy members picked it purely to spite Netflix movies.

One Night in Miami I think is also worth keeping an eye on, as I could see it gaining plenty of momentum as awards season heats up. For now, however, I'll stick with my current top 2 as the big contenders.

Best Director

1. Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
3. David Fincher - Mank
4. Regina King - One Night in Miami
5. Florian Zeller - The Father

Although Zhao's work is what I consider the frontrunner so far, I think Sorkin makes for a more realistic directing winner currently. The Trial of the Chicago 7 simply appears to be a far more conventional pick for directing here, and the Academy certainly hasn't been stranger to Best Picture/Director splits as of late. I wouldn't be surprised if Zhao won here and Chicago 7 got Best Picture instead, though.

Best Lead Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Gary Oldman in Mank
4. Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
5. Steven Yeun in Minari

Here's the big one, ladies and gentlemen. The late and great Chadwick Boseman is clearly the most popular mention for this category at the moment. But I believe Anthony Hopkins could secure a second win with what is already a very appealing type of performance for the Academy.

Many seem to think Oldman may miss out, but if the film is still going to make it in for Picture, Directing, so on and so forth, than I find it impossible for him to miss out.

Lindo I fear could make it in for everything but then miss the Oscar nomination (maybe this year's BAFTA curse?), but his work and the praise its garnered is far too formidable for him to simply miss, so here's hoping he pulls through because he deserves it.

That fifth spot is a tricky guess, and I'm betting on Steven Yeun pulling through. The other big contender is Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal, whose film I simply don't see pulling through the weight of awards season. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor. Yeun, on the other hand, has a film that is getting high notices across the board and could easily be the indie surprise of the season. It very well could be that he'd make history as the first Korean actor nominated here.

Best Lead Actress

1. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Meryl Streep in The Prom

Davis, Kirby, and McDormand are presumably locked in at this point here, and of those three I believe Kirby will since her role relies on emotions that the Academy loves to award time and time again. It helps that she is the only one of the three not to have won before.

For those last two spots, Andra Day I think could pull through and get nominated for a role that could certainly get the Academy's attention, assuming it releases on time. And Streep is always a favorite of the Academy's, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Golden Globes give The Prom the boost it needs to score her another nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Bill Murray in On the Rocks

Odom Jr. is my current frontrunner guess given his rising popularity as of late and his role certainly being the kind the Academy goes after. 

Behind him is Sacha Baron Cohen, who received high praise for his work in Chicago 7, and if the film really does take off this season as I predict, then it's bound to get double nominations here. If it goes that way, then Mark Rylance, a previous winner here for Bridge of Spies, would be my guess. 

Glynn Turman turned out a surprise win at the Los Angeles Film Critics Associations awards, and given Ma Rainey's Black Bottom's praise from critics, he's worth keeping an eye on. 

Then there's that fifth slot. I already mentioned my doubts about Paul Raci earlier, so he's out. Also being considered is Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah, but I'm currently having doubts that he'll be able to squeeze through, especially since his film is a later release. That leaves Bill Murray in On the Rocks, and although his film hasn't gotten a huge push, I think he could get in if he is able to pick up notice from notable and larger film critics groups like the National Board of Review.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman in The Father
2. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank
4. Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman
5. Helena Zengel in News of the World

Colman is the only realistic winner I can see here. Yuh-Jung will certainly have support but I doubt she'll get enough to pull ahead of bigger names. Seyfried has gotten plenty of praise for her part, but her role simply doesn't feel like an Oscar winning one at all. Burstyn makes sense as a returning veteran nominee and Zengel's being the rising star getting recognition makes sense, but neither seem to have paths towards a win. Thus Colman, poised to return following her 2018 win for her outstanding work in The Favourite, seems most realistic to win here.

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. Soul
5. Promising Young Woman

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. I'm Thinking of Ending Things

The two screenplay categories could easily decide the Best Picture winner this year. Minari could be the indie favorite that gets a sole Original Screenplay win, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 will undoubtedly be a more appealing film to Academy voters. If Minari does win, though, it will certainly block Chicago 7 from a Best Picture win.

Nomadland is a clear pick for Adapted Screenplay, but One Night in Miami could also surprise, but which ever one wins I think could easily be a Best Picture winner also.

As for the sole nominees in each category, Promising Young Woman is a film I don't think many Academy voters will buy, but I do think the screenplay branch will at least recognize it. Then I'm Thinking of Ending Things takes the fifth spot in Adapted Screenplay, a slot that seems mostly up for grabs at this point. I think the Charlie Kaufman flick will get it given his Oscar history and the film's numerous mentions from critic groups so far.

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. One Night in Miami
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Regardless of what happens, I feel pretty confident that The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win editing. They've gone for political dramas of this kind in the past here and the film's jumping from present (aka 1968) to past will probably be all they need. 

Best Cinematography

1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Malcolm & Marie

Mank has seemingly fallen off a bit for this awards season, as reactions to it have proven that the film's style isn't something that the Academy is crazy for. However, this category could still easily be its guaranteed win because of its black & white, classic Hollywood feel. 

I'll briefly explain that last slot while I'm at it, as Malcom & Marie is being released in 2021, but before the deadline the Oscars have this time around. And given that it is shot on film and also in black and white, the odds certainly favor this one.

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Midnight Sky
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

The Academy loves Pixar music, and now with previous Oscar-winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross here for Soul, it's undeniable that this will be our frontrunner.

The Personal History of David Copperfield I admit might be more wishful thinking here, but I think that it could easily appeal to the Academy given that Fox Search–oh excuse me, Searchlight Productions (R.I.P. Fox) knows how to campaign their films. I think this one's period piece charm could pull through here given that it could get in other technical categories already.

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" - One Night in Miami
2. "Wear Your Crown" - The Prom
3. "Seen" - The Life Ahead
4. "Hear My Voice" - The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Free" - The One and Only Ivan

Best Production Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Mulan
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield
5. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
5. Emma.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has received far more attention overall outside of its performances, and given its praise I could see it swinging in to big technical victories in the three categories above over Mank. The fact that it's set entirely in one building could play against it in Production Design, but I think the Academy will overlook that and feel more won over by its depression times replication.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Wonder Woman 1984
4. Sonic the Hedgehog
5. Greyhound

This is an interesting category this year, to say the least. Overall I'd still guess that Tenet will win here, as it easily has the most going for it compared to the competition. The Midnight Sky has been predicted as a probable winner also, but I don't see the Academy going for that over VFX work in a Nolan film. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the George Clooney even missed here and only got in for Desplat's score.

Wonder Woman 1984 I think will just get in here by default for being what's probably the only superhero film in the mix here. Sonic the Hedgehog could be nominated purely because of a lack of options, and it helps that it was one of the more popular releases last year. I for one hope it gets in purely to offer something for its VFX team that got laid off after completing it, and it would also be funny because... it's Sonic the Hedgehog.

That fifth spot is basically up for grabs, and I'll go with Greyhound for the time being given Tom Hanks and it being a war movie.

Best Sound

1. News of the World
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Soul
4. Tenet
5. Mank

News of the World looks like it's headed to be a significant tech player this year, and the now combined sound category seems to be its best bet. Especially given that the other contenders aren't exactly ideal winners here; Mank and Soul could be notable, but don't seem like ideal winners. Tenet, the predicted VFX winner, seems like a likely nominee, but it's sound design being it's most criticized part will certainly play against it. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom could be very possible, but a film so similar to the style of a play seems unlikely to win here. Thus, Paul Greengrass' western with Tom Hanks is the most realistic option at the moment.

Best Animated Film

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. The Willoughbys
5. The Croods: A New Age

Pixar is Pixar. Duh. I still don't think Onward will get nominated, though. Now in it's place I have The Croods: A New Age which I wouldn't be surprised would get nominated purely because of how it embraced a theatrical release. It's predecessor got nominated after all, so it's certainly in the picture for this one.

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time
2. Boys State
3. Totally Under Control
4. The Dissident
5. Collective

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo vadis, Aida?
3. Dear Comrades
4. I'm No Longer Here
5. Night of the Kings