Oscars 2020 - Nominations Thoughts

Welp, he didn't get nominated. Even with 10 nominations, The Irishman couldn't get De Niro in Lead Actor. Instead, we got Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes, who admittedly gave a very effective performance, but no way would I put him in over De Niro, and I'm sure those who wanted Taron Egerton for Rocketman would agree. But at least DiCaprio got in despite my speculation, so there's that.

Apart from all that, though, I'm mostly fine with how this year's Oscar nominations turned out, even with a questionable leader.

Yeah, I actually liked Joker as I said in my review (even though my issues with it have since grown), but it absolutely should not have 11 nominations, one more than The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and 1917.

That being said, those previously mentioned three are easily our three frontrunners now, plus Parasite (which I'll get to in a bit). 1917 in particular scored an Original Screenplay nomination, a major indicator of its love among Academy voters, and given results from Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, this might be our new frontrunner. If not, then Once Upon a Time in Hollywood takes it instead. But both films missed film editing nominations, something only two Best Picture winners have missed over the past 30 years. If I had to pick, then 1917 would be my guess right now, as it gives me Birdman and Braveheart vibes, a very good sign of what may come.

Despite this, Thomas Newman may not get his long awaited Oscar for it after all, with Joker seeing a boost after winning the two previously mentioned award shows that loved 1917. He definitely still has a shot, but unless he wins BAFTA then it's over.

The Irishman thankfully didn't underperform like I worried it would (based on what some online folks were saying), but it hasn't really hit home with award shows right now. Even with Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing, it's starting to become more likely that those will go to Little Women or Jojo Rabbit and Ford v Ferrari respectively. So, chances are Visual Effects will be the only prize it will take home, unless DGA and PGA gives it some love.

And yes, I don't see it winning Adapted Screenplay with Little Women and Jojo Rabbit there. If I had to guess between the two, I'd say Jojo Rabbit right now. But I think it's possible for Little Women to surprise at BAFTAs with a Supporting Actress win for Florence Pugh, and if that lead her to an Oscar win, I would be delighted.

Another Netflix film, Marriage Story, got the 6 nominations everyone thought it would (though I feel foolish about putting Jojo Rabbit over it in Original Score), but Laura Dern seems to be the only thing pushing the film forward right now, with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite seeming more likely in Screenplay now. It's likely that Johansson could make her way to the top with SAG over Zellweger, so perhaps there's more hope.

Speaking of Parasite, I was upset that Song Kang-ho didn't defy expectations to receive a Supporting Actor nomination, with Hopkins getting in instead. Other than it, it was able to score 6 nominations, including Film Editing which gives it a nice boost. And if any other film wins Best International Film, I will get a tattoo on my forehead.

The only Best Picture nominee I haven't touched on yet is Ford v Ferrari, which....uh.... got nominated. I don't have much to say on it, partly due to it being the only nominee I haven't seen, but I think it's going to win Film Editing, despite The Irishman having Thelma Schoonmaker.

Other noteworthy nominations I'd like to discuss would be Honeyland, which I believe is the first film to be nominated for both Best International Film and Best Documentary. It likely won't win either one (American Factory for Documentary), but it's pretty cool regardless.

Then in Best Animated Film, Klaus triumphed with a surprise nomination over Frozen II of all films, a big win for Netflix. But, it's much more likely that this will be Toy Story 4's win, given that it's Pixar and that it surprised in Best Original Song (which I initially predicted, but ultimately changed because of what I saw online. Thanks internet!).

Finally, I'd like to say just how happy I am that both The Lighthouse and Knives Out got solo nominations for Best Cinematography and Best Original Screenplay respectively. Just the words "Academy Award Nominee Rian Johnson" sound great!

Now, the fate of the winners lie in the hands of the Academy. Will they fulfill the prophecy, or mess it up again? .....they're gonna mess it up, aren't they? Ah well, whatever happens, hopefully The Irishman wins something.