Oscars 2020 - Final Nominations Predictions

This is it. Tomorrow when the bell tolls 7, we'll know everything, and soon we'll be fighting over what deserved a nomination and what didn't and complaining as to why something didn't get nominated. I'm anxious and excited at the same time, to see my dreams come true to see others be sunk, but whatever happens.....at least we can make fun of the Academy afterwards.

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. 1917
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari

I'm still banking on Parasite winning Best Picture for now just to be safe, despite Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's recent wins. I'm finally moving Jojo Rabbit back in here since its been able to mark all the right boxes so far, with the DGA nomination being the big one it needed.

Best Director

1. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
2. Sam Mendes - 1917
3. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Greta Gerwig - Little Women

Little Women has very thankfully gotten a big boost as of late, particularly with PGA and BAFTA nominations that benefit both its actors and the film's overall chances. And, since the 5th slot of this category is essentially up for grabs right now and the backlash Golden Globes got for a lack of female directing nominees, Gerwig seems like she'll fill that slot nicely.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Taron Egerton - Rocketman
5. Robert De Niro - The Irishman

Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but despite missing SAG and Golden Globe nominations, but I feel De Niro is still getting in. Not only is his film a big player, but his legacy is something I doubt they'll pass up.

Phoenix and Driver are clearly happening no matter what, and Banderas gives a performance I can't see not making it. That leaves Egerton and Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and DiCaprio, despite being nominated for everything so far, just doesn't have the enthusiasm behind him that the other 5 do that could boost De Niro and Banderas, and has had zero precursor wins so far, even losing the Comedy Golden Globe to Egerton. I wouldn't be surprised if he still got nominated, but I'm going by my gut and saying he'll miss.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Song Kang-ho - Parasite
5. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The three Ps are basically locked in at this point, and Kang-ho is easily the strongest candidate for "got nominated for nothing else but the Oscar" nominee. That leaves the fifth spot for Hanks and Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes to fight out. Hanks has been left in the dirt by the Academy for some time now, but the fact that he's playing Mr. Rogers and that his wonderful Golden Globe honorary award speech was right in the middle of Oscar voting, I finally feel safe saying that he's going to get an Oscar nomination again.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Florence Pugh - Little Women
4. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

No J-Lo? I can't help but feel that a snub is awaiting her, with the "got nominated for everything but BAFTA and then missing the Oscar nomination" curse just yelling at me here, the same fate that awaited James Franco for The Disaster Artist and Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. Who gets in over here is a different story, but I'm going with Kathy Bates, as despite her film bombing financially and being passed over entirely by Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA, I think that her overall appeal will speak to the Academy.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. The Farewell

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Two Popes
5. Joker

It pains me to leave out A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood here, but The Two Popes screenplay will undoubtedly appeal to Academy voters more, and Joker is far too well-liked in the industry. Although Joker could miss due to it being a comic book film, even then I Just Mercy pulling off a nomination-upset instead, given the Green Book-type appeal of the film.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Lighthouse
5. The Irishman

That fifth spot has been difficult to figure out, with Portrait of a Lady on Fire and A Hidden Life also seeming like likely solo-nomination candidates here, and Ford v Ferrari appearing at all the right precursors also. But I'm going with The Lighthouse, since the black and white appeal has gotten multiple films in this category as of late, and a BAFTA nomination for it really helps. The Irishman I feel is less safe, since it's cinematography is not one of the big things that comes to mind when people think of the film, and with Ford v Ferrari certainly having the momentum to best it, but I think I'll go with Scorsese's film considering it's been showing up here more.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Little Women
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Predicting that Jojo Rabbit will surprise and get nominated over Marriage Story, because if the BAFTAs nominated BlacKkKlansman over First Man the year before (which ended up leading to a shocking snub for the astronaut film), then recent history could very well repeat itself.

Best Original Song

1. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough
5. "Glasgow" - Wild Rose

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Little Women

I know that Joker has had more of a presence here than Little Women, but I think that the period-piece appeal of Little Women will overthrow it here, but that's probably the only time I'll say that regarding Joker.

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. The Irishman
5. Rocketman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

EDIT, JAN 12, 11:36pm: I decided to take Downton Abbey out of the #5 slots of both Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling basically last minute as I don't think the film really has the steam to get in anymore.

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Alita: Battle Angel
5. Terminator: Dark Fate

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. Missing Link
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Misérables
4. Atlantics
5. Those Who Remained

Best Documentary Film

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. One Child Nation
5. Maiden

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Little Hands
4. Miller and Son
5. Refugee

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Dcera (Daughter)
4. The Physics of Sorrow
5. Mind My Mind

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
2. Fire in Paradise
3. Stay Close
4. St. Louis Superman
5. Ghosts of Sugar Land