Oscars 2021 - Final Predictions

This is it, folks. Here are my final predictions for the 2021 Oscars.

Best Picture

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. The Father
6. Sound of Metal
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Mank

I do feel a bit conflicted about playing it safe and going with what's won everything so far for reasons I'll explain later regarding the runner-up here, but given it's PGA win and it's editing nomination here, I feel safe enough to stick with Nomadland.

Best Director

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland
2. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
3. Emerald Fennel for Promising Young Woman
4. David Fincher for Mank
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round

Best Lead Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins in The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
4. Steven Yeun in Minari
5. Gary Oldman in Mank

Boseman has the advantage here, having Golden Globe and SAG wins, but I really think Hopkins' recent support will help him take the award home. I don't just mean his BAFTA win, but his praise in general and many anonymous Oscar ballots from voters (which, admittedly, aren't the best way to predict) dumbing down to "Boseman will win, so I voted Hopkins instead" really makes me think that he can take it.

Best Lead Actress

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland
3. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday
4. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman

I could see this being anyone's game (except Kirby's, sorry). Davis has the SAG win, but SAG awards her at virtually any given chance, so I don't see her winning beyond that, especially since Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has no Best Picture nomination. Day I really don't see being more than a Golden Globes thing, but I see her as a more realistic option given that there is passion for her work despite her film being not particularly good. McDormand has BAFTA, though given the circumstances with BAFTA this year I likely just shows that she would be the winner if this year weren't as competitive, though I can still see her pull through. I'm sticking with Mulligan, though, because of her film's love with other nominations, her being a crucial part of her film's success in the first place and two of the other frontrunners (Davis and McDormand) having Oscars already.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
3. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah
4. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami

I guess there's a slight, and I mean slight, possibility that Raci could upset if passion for Sound of Metal pulls through, but overall this will easily be Kaluuya's night.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari
2. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Olivia Colman in The Father
4. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
5. Amanda Seyfried in Mank

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

Well this is a category where I'm ready to be wrong. Yes, Promising Young Woman certainly has the advantage in Original Screenplay, but I'm sensing an upset. It helps already that actors love Sorkin (given Chicago 7's SAG Ensemble win) and there have been times where the Oscar winner here splits from the WGA winner, and I can easily see Sorkin getting his second win through that. I also wouldn't be surprised if Minari surprised by chance, but I'll just take my chances and place my bet on Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

Regardless of how well either Chicago 7 or Nomadland do, I don't think this is a category Nomadland absolutely needs to win for it to take Best Picture. I do think that voters will go with The Father here given the BAFTA win and that it's a much more dialogue-focused film than Zhao's film.

Best Film Editing

1. Sound of Metal
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. The Father
4. Nomadland
5. Promising Young Woman

I feel like this category will decide a lot here, because if ACE winner Chicago 7 does win here, then I think that it also takes Picture and will for sure take Screenplay. If literally anything else wins, however, then Nomadland still reigns supreme. I'll stick with BAFTA winner here, Sound of Metal, which has the Sound nomination correlation advantage and BAFTA being the more accurate predictor here compared to ACE as of late. I should also note that the BAFTA/ACE split opens up the possibility for an upset, which I think would be The Father, but I'll just say Sound of Metal to play it safe.

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. News of the World
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score

1. Soul
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. News of the World
5. Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song

1. "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
2. "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
3. "Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead
4. "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah
5. "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Production Design

1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Tenet
4. The Father
5. News of the World

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Emma.
3. Mank
4. Mulan
5. Pinocchio

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Pinocchio
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Mank
5. Emma.

I could see an upset happening in either of the two categories above. It's difficult to see Emma. overtaking Ma Rainey in costumes since it has won everything there. As for Makeup, maybe Pinocchio can overtake Ma Rainey just because of how impressive and showy it is, or even Hillbilly Elegy if the Academy decides they really hate us, but most voters likely have not even seen Pinocchio or won't bother with Hillbilly Elegy at this point, which would give Ma Rainey the advantage again, so I'm sticking by that for both of the above.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Love and Monsters
5. The One and Only Ivan

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal
2. The rest

Best Animated Film

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
5. Over the Moon

Best International Film

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Collective
4. Better Days
5. The Man Who Sold His Skin

Best Documentary Feature

1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Time
3. Crip Camp
4. Collective
5. The Mole Agent

Best Live Action Short

1. Two Distant Strangers
2. Feeling Through
3. The Letter Room
4. The Present
5. White Eye

Best Animated Short

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Opera
4. Genius Loci
5. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short

1. A Concerto is a Conversation
2. Colette
3. A Love Song for Latasha
4. Hunger Ward
5. Do Not Split