Oscars 2021 - June Predictions

Uh... well, this has been an eventful past few months, to say the least. The reasons being I think are pretty obvious, but the ones I'll discuss will of course be in regards to the Oscars. So, here, I will attempt to do some predictions as I would normally do and discuss some of the changes in the process. So stand back, ladies and gentlemen, I'm gonna try and take a stab at what's probably the most uncertain field for an Awards Season ever.

Best Picture

1. Mank
2. Annette
3. Dune
4. Harry Haft
5. The French Dispatch
6. Tenet
7. Ammonite
8. Soul

First off, it's worth mentioning that I hope we can consider all of these 2020 releases, with the eligibility period being extended to the end of February 2021, because apparently good movies are only released during Awards season? It's a pretty poor move, especially if most of the nominated films for a ceremony for 2020 films are 2021 releases. In that case, what was the point of allowing straight to VOD and streaming films eligible? Maybe they'll be released elsewhere before the years end so they can count as 2020 films, considering that this all seems to be the biggest issues in the United States.

Speaking of straight to streaming films, that makes this the year for a Netflix film to win, particularly Mank, a biographical film about a Citizen Kane co-writer from a beloved director who still hasn't won with Gary Oldman helming the lead. If not, then Amazon has us covered with Annette, a musical from Holy Motors director Leos Carax staring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard, which could easily be a hit.

But if we are going off of theatrical releases, then Dune and Tenet are the best bets. Dune in particular, since it's not coming until later this year, is from an already nominated and well established director, and the film itself seems very ambitious. Tenet is lower because Nolan seems to think he can get things cleared up by the end of July, which is... not possible. But I could still see the film getting enough love to bypass what could easily be poor box office numbers and succeed with viewers.

Best Director

1. David Fincher - Mank
2. Leos Carax - Annette
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune
4. Barry Levinson - Harry Haft
5. Wes Anderson - The French Dispatch

Anderson is one I could see missing based mainly on gut feeling, but right now I believe he's a safer bet than Nolan for reasons previously stated, plus another one I'll get to in a bit...

Best Lead Actor

1. Ben Foster - Harry Haft
2. Adam Driver - Annette
3. Gary Oldman - Mank
4. Anthony Hopkins - The Father
5. John David Washington - Tenet

Ben Foster being a highly esteemed actor who still has yet to get an Oscar nomination has found what may be the part he needs as the titular role in the film about a boxer forced to fight in Holocaust concentration camps trying to find his first love in his life after the war. And from Barry Levinson no less, the director of Best Picture winner Rain Man; this seems like the perfect formula for Foster to get his due.

Driver I'm sure will get plenty of love for his turn in Annette, given how close he was to victory last year. Oldman and Hopkins being veteran winners in very baity roles helps, Hopkins in particular has already been seen and has received tons of praise. Then Washington is one I bet on as while I predict his film to underperform awards wise, I believe he'll have the love he needs to get in backing him.

Best Lead Actress

1. Marion Cotillard - Annette
2. Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Kate Winslet - Ammonite
4. Jessie Buckley - I'm Thinking of Ending Things
5. Jennifer Hudson - Respect

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Burke - Mank
2. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
3. Bill Murray - On the Rocks
4. Danny DeVito - Harry Haft
5. Forest Whitaker - Respect

Still have Burke as Orson Welles as my bet here, but let's talk about Delroy Lindo. A lot of talk has been going on about whether he's leading or supporting. With more screen time than anyone else in the film, but its also arguably an ensemble piece. My bet is that Netflix will go with supporting, unfortunately, because of the ensemble nature of the film and the fact that Lead Actor already has some contenders that will be hard to match. However, given that he has plenty of support backing him, it's possible that a leading campaign could work out instead.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan - Ammonite
2. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
3. Vicky Krieps - Harry Haft
4. Meryl Streep - The Prom
5. Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Best Original Screenplay

1. Mank
2. Ammonite
3. Annette
4. Soul
5. Da 5 Bloods

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The French Dispatch
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Dune
4. Next Goal Wins
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

This category looks to be pretty barren this year, and The French Dispatch is supposedly based off of real newspaper stories, so Fox Searchlight would be silly not to run it here. Next Goal Wins and The Personal History of David Copperfield are really just films that could be swapped out with others here. However, I do feel that both could easily be here, especially with good word surround Copperfield and Waititi helming Next Goal Wins, which could actually be a bigger player in general, but given how uncertain things are right now, it's best to just wait and see what happens.

Best Film Editing

1. Harry Haft
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

A boxing/wrestling based film seems to be the kind of work that would impress Academy voters the most, a la Raging Bull, but still keep an eye on Dune, which is undoubtedly going to be a very big player in terms of the technical categories.

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. Annette
3. Tenet
4. The French Dispatch
5. Mank

Best Original Score

1. Annette
2. Dune
3. Tenet
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

Best Original Song

1. Annette
2. No Time to Die
3. Soul
4. West Side Story
5. The Prom

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. Annette
5. West Side Story

Best Costume Design

1. Dune
2. The French Dispatch
3. Mank
4. West Side Story
5. Mulan

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Hillbilly Elegy
2. Dune
3. Death on the Nile
4. Mank
5. The French Dispatch

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Tenet
3. Black Widow
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Call of the Wild

Best Sound

1. Tenet
2. Dune
3. Annette
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Soul

No more Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, just Best Sound. It's unfortunate given that the two are fundamentally different, and had many split wins in past years, including last with 1917 winning Sound Mixing and Ford v Ferrari winning Sound Editing. But, it is what it is, and with the one category now, my guess would be Tenet, because I can't see a Nolan picture not winning a single tech award nowadays, and Sound may be the ticket it needs.