Oscars 2020 - Final Predictions

The time has come. Here are my final predictions for the Oscars 2020.
(NOTE: Films with an asterisk (*) next to them are my personal picks for their respective category)
(ALSO NOTE: I might change some of these mere hours before the show starts because I'm a coward, and if I do I'll leave a note under the changed category saying that I did with an explanation)

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman*
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Joker
7. Marriage Story
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari

It's clear that this race is almost entirely between 1917 and Parasite at this point, with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood trailing close behind. And 1917 seems like the frontrunner with PGA and DGA wins, I think the preferential ballot will be kind to Parasite. The only thing really holding it back is the fact that it's a non-english film competing in a year where the possibility for major diversity was basically ignored. But, considering the love it's been able to garner from not just awards guilds but from literally everyone who can read period, I think we're about to see history right there.

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes - 1917
2. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
3. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman*
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Todd Phillips - Joker

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker*
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Best Lead Actress

1. Renée Zellweger - Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
3. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women*
4. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
5. Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman*
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Florence Pugh - Little Women*
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite*
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. 1917

Parasite is clearly the crowd favorite here, especially after WGA and BAFTA wins, but the Academy's Tarantino love could easily pull through, especially given his film is about Hollywood. I'm tempted to go Hollywood here, but considering that Parasite is looking like the bigger player as of late and that it could very well win Best Picture, I'll go with that instead, but I won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman*
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Jojo Rabbit has gained some major momentum over Little Women after taking home the previously mentioned awards Parasite did. And films with the WGA and BAFTA combo here have rarely, if not ever lost the Oscar, so Taika Waititi better have a speech ready.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman*
4. Joker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. The Lighthouse*

Best Original Score

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women*
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Toy Story 4
2. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
5. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough

Probably my riskiest prediction here. Although Rocketman's success here in precursors shows, it doesn't seem like the Academy will go for it, especially after it was left out in all other categories. The three I listed below it don't feel like winners to me either. That leaves Toy Story 4, which just snuck in here last minute, and given the Academy's past love for Pixar songs and that this is a short season in general, I think it's a bet worth playing. I'm a natural Howard Ratner!

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite*
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit

It doesn't quite feel right that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins Supporting Actor and Production Design only as the combo just seems odd to me. However, given that we see this result for Lincoln, I think I'll stick by it. If not, then there's three possibilities: it also takes costumes (which I find unlikely as I think all the Best Picture nominees are winning something), it loses this category to 1917 (or possibly Parasite, but I doubt it), or it also wins Original Screenplay over Parasite, effectively making 1917 the Best Picture winner.

Best Costume Design

1. Little Women*
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

Playing it safe and sticking with Jacqueline Durran winning her second Oscar, but don't be surprised if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Jojo Rabbit win instead (Hollywood in particular), especially considering that this category is all over the place this year.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. Judy
4. 1917*
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. The Irishman*
2. 1917
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

This category is pretty much between 1917 and The Irishman. 1917 has the advantage in that it's won the BAFTA, but I feel that The Irishman will prevail despite the de-aging's divisiveness, especially after it's Visual Effects Society win for Best Supporting Effects, which lead major awards players from previous years Hugo and last year's First Man to win here despite losing BAFTA, Critics Choice, etc. 

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917*
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Ad Astra
5. Joker

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917*
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Klaus
3. Missing Link
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite*
2. The Rest

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Edge of Democracy
5. The Cave

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. A Sister

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Memorable
4. Sister
5. Daughter

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. In the Absence
4. Walk Run Cha-Cha
5. Life Overtakes Me

IN SHORT:

• I'm being risky and saying Parasite will make history instead of 1917 prevailing
• Acting winners are insanely predictable
• Costume Design is a tricky race
• All 9 Best Picture nominees will win something
• The Academy probably still loves Pixar songs
• Insert 6th point with quirky comment here