Oscars 2020 - December Predictions

The holiday season has come and gone, and from it we have been gifted shortlists, preferential choices of 2019 from critic groups, and nominations from award shows. We're truly nearing the big day of Oscar nominations, with Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards winners taking place not too far before that at all. So, I've got some catching up to do, both with viewings and predictions.

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
6. Joker
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Bombshell

The race has been settled and is pretty much against three films now. The Irishman, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are leading with big nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and the Screen Actor's Guild. The immense love for Parasite has me see it as the potential winner above the rest, as everyone is on board the #BongHive, even being the first non-english film to score a Best Ensemble nomination from the Screen Actor's Guild. The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (which are essentially tied here) are the only other two I can see winning. I see that any of those three are going to win here, they'll need to win both directing and screenplay also.

Best Director

1. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
2. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes - 1917
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. James Mangold - Ford v Ferrari

If you had a dollar for each time I spoke too soon, you'd be rich. Ford v Ferrari is pulling through with love for Christian Bale's performance and the film in general showing up. And with me still doubting Baumbach, Mangold is our new surprise pick. 

I should also note that considering how the Academy hasn't been particularly kind to Tarantino in recent years, as he was snubbed of a directing nomination for Django Unchained and a writing one for The Hateful Eight. Chances are his latest film's Hollywood factor will prevail in the end, but just in case I'll put him on the lower end of this category.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Robert De Niro - The Irishman
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
4. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
5. Lupita Nyong'o - Us

If Little Women gets pushed aside in the end (which I'm predicting), then that likely means Saoirse Ronan will be too. In that case, Nyong'o's brilliant performance which has been sweeping critics groups and even landed a SAG nomination. Toni Collette in Hereditary also swept critic mentions only to be passed by entirely by awards shows, but considering Us is actually being campaigned and got that SAG mention, I think it could overcome the genre bias.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Song Kang-ho - Parasite
5. Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

The Marina de Tavira effect may return, as her Supporting Actress nomination with zero major precursor mentions could return for Song Kang-ho for his even more praised performance in a film that's perhaps the most praised of the year.

Hopkins is holding on by a thread here. Right now its either him or Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and it's no secret that the Academy has been harsh to Hanks as of late, most notably with his infamous Captain Phillips snub. It's very possible that he could overcome it this time, but I'll stick by Hopkins for now.

Regardless, this race is between Pitt, who's been the clear favorite with critics right now, and Pesci, whose praise has him second up in critics mentions. I'd bet on Pitt as even if The Irishman won Best Picture, I couldn't quite see it winning any acting awards. But don't be surprised if Pesci does end up being the victor.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Nicole Kidman - Bombshell
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

If the Academy went for Vice last year, then it wouldn't be a shocker if they also went for Bombshell. Especially if those SAG nominations mean anything (trust me, they do), with both Robbie and Kidman getting in and a Best Ensemble nomination being earned also.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. The Farewell

I'm afraid it's time to say goodbye to Knives Out being huge as I predicted. The screenplay nomination is still a given, but right now it isn't making the impact at precursors and award shows nominations it needs to succeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see it score other nominations, though (Editing and Production Design nominations please).

Marriage Story has proven to be beloved with it leading in overall critic circle mentions for Screenplays, but isn't up to speed with Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's impact so far, and I find it hard to see any of the big three mentioned earlier winning Best Picture without a screenplay win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Two Popes
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Just Mercy

Joker may seem like a safe bet here thanks to Critics Choice and critics group nominations, but the writing branch of the Academy hasn't been keen on nominating comic book films such as The Dark Knight and more notably and recently Black Panther, both of which received Writer's Guild Awards nominations. Logan is an exception, but that year Adapted Screenplay was incredibly weak. Instead, Just Mercy takes its place, with shades of Green Book (last year's Original Screenplay) that are sure to catch the attention of voters despite it being more under the radar compared to other films I'm predicting.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. Marriage Story

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. A Hidden Life

Portrait of a Lady on Fire has been scoring nominations and even wins from critics groups for its cinematography, with many predicting it to be the only nomination for the film come January. But I worry that the film will be passed over as it has been lately, with France not even submitting it for Best International Film. I wouldn't be surprised if I were proven wrong, however, and the film's director (Céline Sciamma) getting a nomination would be my dark horse pick for the category. For now though, I'll stick by Terrence Malick's latest film getting its sole recognition here.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Toy Story 4
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen 2
3. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
4. "Stand Up" - Harriet
5. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. 1917

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Downton Abbey
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. The Irishman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Alita: Battle Angel
5. Captain Marvel

The omission of Ad Astra from the Visual Effects shortlist shocked the film's fans, leaving the impression that voters don't care about the film enough. It could be the lone Sound Editing nomination this year, but be weary.

The Irishman has rather impressive de-aging that was able to make the shortlist, but the divisiveness of the effects will be something that could easily blunt its chances here, even with those who love the gangster flick criticizing it. And if Dunkirk couldn't land a VFX nomination, then chances are 1917 won't either.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is far too divisive to warrant a win, even though a nomination still seems pretty save. The Lion King, on the other hand, is disliked in general and will need to get past that to win.

That leaves Avengers: Endgame, a film that's both popular and mostly well-liked. Not to mention how we still have yet to see an MCU film win here, and the film that treats it as its finale will be sure to catch the attention of voters.

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Joker
5. Midway

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Ad Astra

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. Abominable

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Misérables
4. Beanpole
5. Those Who Remained

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. One Child Nation
4. Honeyland
5. The Edge of Democracy

If Won't You Be My Neighbor and Jane missed nominations here despite seeming like obvious frontrunners the day before nominations were announced, chances are Apollo 11 will see the same fate.

I'll hold off on predicting the short film categories for now, but I promise that I'll have them for my next and final nominations predictions sometime next month before the 13th.