Oscars 2020 - November Predictions

Well folks, we've (kind of) made it. Every film we've been keeping our eyes on throughout the awards season has been seen, with the exception of Cats, but..... ya know. With nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic's Choice Awards less than two weeks away, now would be an excellent time to see how things are going.

Best Picture

1. The Irishman
2. 1917
3. Marriage Story
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Parasite
6. Joker
7. Knives Out
8. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Yes, I'm giving in. I've already talked in the past about being hesitant about predicting 1917 to the extent that others have because I felt that the one-shot style would be incredibly hit or miss, not to mention how Sam Mendes' work is a bit divisive also. But after first reactions dropped just recently, it's safe to say that it'll be a big hit with multiple awards guilds.

That being said, I'm still betting on The Irishman winning. The runtime and Netflix bias is certainly going to factor against it, but the acclaim is most certainly there from both audiences and critics.

Marriage Story isn't far behind 1917 if not tied with it right now, so you can somewhat consider this to be a brawl between The Irishman, 1917, and Marriage Story.

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
2. Sam Mendes - 1917
3. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
5. Rian Johnson - Knives Out

"When is this kid going to give up on Knives Out?" Well, I'm glad to say that my answer is never. I'll consider it the "surprise hit" for the awards season right now, similar to Phantom Thread, because the praise both online and from AMPAS it has been getting so far and the its likelihood of success is something that will easily give it a major boost. Hopefully that will make Lionsgate realize that they should be campaigning it more as well.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Robert De Niro - The Irishman
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory

Nothing new to say here since last time, but I should note that De Niro and DiCaprio are basically tied. Also worth mentioning is that Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name could make it here as well, but Banderas performance and film seems to be more like something the Academy would like. Murphy is still worth keeping an eye on regardless, and maybe he'll be able to pick up with nominations from the Critic's Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Ana de Armas - Knives Out
4. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
5. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood I predict is going to be this award season's Philomena. It gets nominated for the same four categories, but the big twist here is that it actually wins the acting category it was nominated for. Hanks already has a big push going for him, and the fact that he's playing Mr. Rogers is irresistible. The Academy may have been keen on snubbing him as of late, but I believe that this will be the one.

Dafoe in The Lighthouse I admit might be more wishful thinking on my part if anything, considering how much I love the film and Dafoe in general. But the way he snuck into the lead actor category last year for At Eternity's Gate really gives me the feeling that the love for him is enough to get him the nominations that he deserves, regardless of genre bias in this case.

And if Dafoe doesn't work out, then put in Shia LaBeouf for Honey Boy instead, which has been getting perhaps the biggest push from Amazon right now and has gotten a good amount of love from those in the industry.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Annette Bening - The Report
5. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

Best Original Screenplay

1. Knives Out
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Farewell

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Jojo Rabbit I feel won't be able to pull through in the end. Its reception has already been very divisive in a season where films that are loved by most are prevailing (with the exception of the divisive Joker, which gets its awards boost from its lead performance and massive box office success).  Not to mention how much more successful other contenders it's up against have been. Maybe I'm wrong, but for now I'll go by by gut and say it won't get a Best Picture nomination, although one for screenplay still seems pretty safe.

Best Film Editing

1. The Irishman
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. Joker

The Irishman takes the front spot mainly because of the runtime and how the editing made it seem so quick. Not to mention that Thelma Schoonmaker is perhaps the most respected film editor in the industry.

1917 is an interesting case here, because war films often do well in this category, and this one even has Lee Smith (previous winner here for the amazing Dunkirk) attached. However, it's one-shot style. although being greatly aided by editing, will seem much more like an effort for cinematography (which it honestly should). This may actually play against it for this category given how the last film in this style, Birdman, won in cinematography but wasn't even nominated for film editing, likely a result of voters thinking the editing is less plausible because of how it is in the style of being one shot. So, I'll lay on it getting nominated here for now, but I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong.

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. A Hidden Life

Roger Deakins goes from being at #2 to looking at #2. I already established 1917's one-shot look above, so I don't think I need to go into too much detail about how it'll easily win over Academy voters. 

Joker has been able to find a surge in this category as of late, particularly with its main competition win at Camerimage, a major cinematography guild. The film has already received plenty of praise for its camerawork already, so it looks like a nomination here is underway.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Little Women
3. Marriage Story
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Original Song

1. "The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy" - Toy Story 4
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
3. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
4. "Beautiful Ghosts" - Cats
5. "Stand Up" - Harriet

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. 1917
5. Knives Out

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Downton Abbey
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. The Irishman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Downton Abbey

Best Visual Effects

1. Ad Astra
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. The Aeronauts
5. Captain Marvel

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Ad Astra
5. Midway

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Ad Astra

Academy loves war films when it comes to sound design, and know that my fears that it would be too divisive have been dashed, I now feel safe in predicting it to win both of them. As for Ford v Ferrari, I honestly feel like it too won't make it anymore. Not that it isn't well-liked, just that it doesn't seem to have the legs needed to stand against other films throughout the season. Right now, it'd be best to say it'll be the next Baby Driver in the sense that it'll get editing and sound nominations and nothing else.

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. Weathering With You
4. Missing Link
5. I Lost My Body

Frozen II may be winning the hearts of fans of the first film right now, but Toy Story 4 still has the far better reception from both audiences and critics to give it a major advantage here. It also helps that the Academy loves Toy Story and Pixar in general.

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Les Misérables
3. Monos
4. Gully Boy
5. Atlantics

#BongHive