Oscars 2020 - July Predictions

With the summer coming closer to an end, the start of a new school year is just a few weeks away (for me at least), but hey, at least we get more movie trailers and film festival lineups to help with Oscars speculation. So, let’s jump right into some pretty early predictions. Before I do that though, I should clarify that Tom Hooper’s Cats is out of the running for me. After that trailer, which was.....a trailer, it’s safe to say it isn’t going to be another awards darling from the already divisive director. With that out of the way, let’s go.

Best Picture

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Knives Out
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Avengers: Endgame
7. The Report
8. Harriet

I still see The Irishman as the frontrunner so far, considering it’s Martin Scorsese, it has an all-star cast, and many of the people working on it have won Oscars in the past. The only factor that I think could play against it would be the de-aging VFX, which even Scorsese has expressed concern about.

I was skeptical about putting Avengers: Endgame here, but now that it is the highest-grossing film ever made, and that other films that once held that title (Avatar, Gone With the Wind) also got Best Picture nominations, I think it’s safe to say it’s in the race. All it needs now is a proper campaign from Disney.

Jojo Rabbit seems like a safe bet considering the film's director, Taika Waititi, has had a good reputation as of late with Hunt for the Wilderpeople and Thor: Ragnorak. Its themes of anti-hate could also give it a nice boost.

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
2. James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari
3. Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit
4. Rian Johnson for Knives Out
5. Scott Z. Burns for The Report

Still no Tarantino. Even though his latest has been getting mostly positive reception and has “Oscar winner” written all over it, I have this gut feeling that he’s going to miss like Martin McDonagh and Bradley Cooper did. 

As for Burns, although we still don’t know too much about The Report, I do feel that Amazon will give it the push it needs to become an Oscar player.

Best Lead Actor

1. Robert De Niro in The Irishman
2. Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory
4. Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name
5. Adam Driver in The Report

Tom Hanks may have the quintessential Oscar role as Mr. Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Joaquin Phoenix's titular role in Joker sounds like it's going to get a big push, but I feel like both of them will get chewed out in the end, particularly with Phoenix. I can easily see them both getting nominated for almost everything, only to miss out on the Oscars. So as much as I would love to see a showdown between Mr. Rogers and the Joker, I'm not betting on it.

Antonio Banderas performance in Pain and Glory has generated a lot of buzz following his Cannes win for Best Actor, and although I don't see him as a winner right now, I certainly see him as a big player. I would count on him getting nominated for almost everything, minus the Screen Actors Guild.

Two other performances to look out for would be Tom Hardy in Fonzo, a film where Hardy plays Al Capone which I'm thinking may miss out on film festivals, and Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, a beloved actor whose work in the arthouse horror got great feedback from Cannes which is also going to upcoming festivals.

Best Lead Actress

1. Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
2. Meryl Streep in The Laundromat
3. Charlize Theron in Fair and Balanced
4. Cate Blanchett in Where'd You Go, Bernadette
5. Jodie Turner-Smith in Queen & Slim

The trailer for Harriet reminded me of Darkest Hour, which is very good news for Erivo as it marks all the boxes for being the frontrunner in an acting category. This could also mean it may have success in technical categories, such as costume design and cinematography. In short, it's one to look out for this awards season.

Cate Blanchett is here for being Cate Blanchett, and the Academy loves Cate Blanchett.

Queen & Slim I feel will go down the Loving route, meaning that it probably won't be as big of a hit when the awards season begins, but could still sneak into the Lead Actress category.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Chris Evans in Knives Out
2. Joe Pesci in The Irishman
3. Taika Waititi in Jojo Rabbit
4. Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Al Pacino in The Irishman

I originally had Lakeith Stanfield as the frontrunner here for Knives Out, but after it's trailer it doesn't seem like his role is as substantial as I initially thought it was. However, it did look like Chris Evans has the perfect supporting role in it, with what looked to be great comedic relief, so perhaps he can sneak his way into Oscar glory.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Scarlett Johanson in Jojo Rabbit
2. Annette Bening in The Report
3. Jamie Lee Curtis in Knives Out
4. Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Octavia Spencer in Luce

Scarlett Johanson has been getting lots of Oscar buzz for two her upcoming films, those being Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story. I don't think that Marriage Story will take off as well as I've seen others say it will, mainly because I'm predicting Netflix is going to put all their campaigning energy towards The Irishman instead. Jojo Rabbit, on the other hand, has her in a role the Oscars love, that being of a supportive single mother.

Even better for Johanson is that Margot Robbie's role in Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, which I originally saw as the frontrunner here, isn't in it as much as we hoped. Then there's Annette Bening, who has been nominated five times in the past, but I don't think The Report is going to end her losing streak.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Knives Out
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Report
4. Uncut Gems
5. Booksmart

Decided to move out The Farewell, as it doesn't seem to be gathering as much attention as I initially thought it would. Booksmart is here now because although it wasn't a huge hit at the box office, it's online praise has been made very vocal, showing that it has clearly become a crowd favorite. 

Uncut Gems has the odds in its favor right now, with plans to show at Toronto International Film Festival and with the previous work from its writers/directors, Good Time, being very well-liked. It probably won't be a major hit at other award shows, but it could easily get enough attention to warrant a nomination here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. The Laundromat
5. Ford v Ferrari

No Little Women here. I have a bad feeling that Greta Gerwig's latest is going to end up like First Man, as it won't do too hot at the box office, neither will it's distributor do much to campaign it.

I was uncertain about putting Ford v Ferrari here because the trailer made it look more like a technical film than a writer's film, but considering Mangold's was able to get in here for Logan, which I never would've bet on, maybe he can surprise me again.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Knives Out
5. The Report

Best Cinematography

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Harriet
4. 1917
5. A Hidden Life

Best Original Score

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Little Women
4. 1917
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. Harriet
4. Queen & Slim
5. Cats

I know what I said about Cats earlier, but film adaptations of musicals, even the bad ones, have been able to land a nomination here. Nine, Dreamgirls, and Les Misérables are all good examples of this.

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Harriet
5. The Aeronauts

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Harriet
4. The Irishman
5. The Aeronauts

For the two categories above, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood claims the top for both since its recreation of the 1960s will undoubtedly speak volume to the Academy, considering that they love themselves a lot. 

The Aeronauts looks to be a candidate for these two categories at the very least, I am skeptical about how good it will actually be, but just looking at stills of it alone makes me say to myself "hey look, an Oscar nominee for technical awards."

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Fonzo
2. Joker
3. Aladdin
4. Harriet
5. The Aeronauts

With this category finally being expanded to having five nominees rather than three, I found this one to be a bit harder to predict. The bottom two I admittedly am not fully confident about, but I still think they have a good shot here. Fonzo claims the top as the transformation done to Tom Hardy is exactly what the Academy looks for here.

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. The Lion King
4. Captain Marvel
5. Spider-Man: Far From Home

If Avengers: Endgame isn't a surefire for Best Picture, it's at least an obvious frontrunner for VFX right now. 

Ad Astra may also find luck here, but I doubt that 20th Century Fox will give it a big campaign when they have Ford v Ferrari. I say this because Ford v Ferrari easily has a more significant chance at grossing more, considering the film's director, James Mangold, has had several box office successes such as Walk the Line and Logan. Ad Astra, on the other hand, is from a director (James Gray) whose past films have performed poorly and are fairly divisive.

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Rocketman

Best Sound Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. 1917

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. The Addams Family
4. Missing Link
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon