Oscars 2020 - First Winner Predictions

CLICK HERE TO SEE MY OVERALL THOUGHTS ON THE NOMINATIONS
If you are interested in further thoughts on any of the categories, please comment below and I'll get to you as soon as possible.

Best Picture

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes - 1917
2. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
4. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
5. Todd Phillips - Joker

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
4. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
5. Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Florence Pugh - Little Women
3. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
4. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. 1917

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. The Lighthouse

Best Original Score

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song

1. "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Toy Story 4
2. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
5. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. The Irishman
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. Judy
4. 1917
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. The Irishman
2. 1917
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Ad Astra

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. I Lost My Body
4. Klaus
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. The Rest

Best Documentary Film

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Edge of Democracy
5. The Cave

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. Une soeur

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Daughter
4. Mémorable
5. Sister

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If Your a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. In the Absence
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

Oscars 2020 - Nominations Thoughts

Welp, he didn't get nominated. Even with 10 nominations, The Irishman couldn't get De Niro in Lead Actor. Instead, we got Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes, who admittedly gave a very effective performance, but no way would I put him in over De Niro, and I'm sure those who wanted Taron Egerton for Rocketman would agree. But at least DiCaprio got in despite my speculation, so there's that.

Apart from all that, though, I'm mostly fine with how this year's Oscar nominations turned out, even with a questionable leader.

Yeah, I actually liked Joker as I said in my review (even though my issues with it have since grown), but it absolutely should not have 11 nominations, one more than The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and 1917.

That being said, those previously mentioned three are easily our three frontrunners now, plus Parasite (which I'll get to in a bit). 1917 in particular scored an Original Screenplay nomination, a major indicator of its love among Academy voters, and given results from Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, this might be our new frontrunner. If not, then Once Upon a Time in Hollywood takes it instead. But both films missed film editing nominations, something only two Best Picture winners have missed over the past 30 years. If I had to pick, then 1917 would be my guess right now, as it gives me Birdman and Braveheart vibes, a very good sign of what may come.

Despite this, Thomas Newman may not get his long awaited Oscar for it after all, with Joker seeing a boost after winning the two previously mentioned award shows that loved 1917. He definitely still has a shot, but unless he wins BAFTA then it's over.

The Irishman thankfully didn't underperform like I worried it would (based on what some online folks were saying), but it hasn't really hit home with award shows right now. Even with Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing, it's starting to become more likely that those will go to Little Women or Jojo Rabbit and Ford v Ferrari respectively. So, chances are Visual Effects will be the only prize it will take home, unless DGA and PGA gives it some love.

And yes, I don't see it winning Adapted Screenplay with Little Women and Jojo Rabbit there. If I had to guess between the two, I'd say Jojo Rabbit right now. But I think it's possible for Little Women to surprise at BAFTAs with a Supporting Actress win for Florence Pugh, and if that lead her to an Oscar win, I would be delighted.

Another Netflix film, Marriage Story, got the 6 nominations everyone thought it would (though I feel foolish about putting Jojo Rabbit over it in Original Score), but Laura Dern seems to be the only thing pushing the film forward right now, with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite seeming more likely in Screenplay now. It's likely that Johansson could make her way to the top with SAG over Zellweger, so perhaps there's more hope.

Speaking of Parasite, I was upset that Song Kang-ho didn't defy expectations to receive a Supporting Actor nomination, with Hopkins getting in instead. Other than it, it was able to score 6 nominations, including Film Editing which gives it a nice boost. And if any other film wins Best International Film, I will get a tattoo on my forehead.

The only Best Picture nominee I haven't touched on yet is Ford v Ferrari, which....uh.... got nominated. I don't have much to say on it, partly due to it being the only nominee I haven't seen, but I think it's going to win Film Editing, despite The Irishman having Thelma Schoonmaker.

Other noteworthy nominations I'd like to discuss would be Honeyland, which I believe is the first film to be nominated for both Best International Film and Best Documentary. It likely won't win either one (American Factory for Documentary), but it's pretty cool regardless.

Then in Best Animated Film, Klaus triumphed with a surprise nomination over Frozen II of all films, a big win for Netflix. But, it's much more likely that this will be Toy Story 4's win, given that it's Pixar and that it surprised in Best Original Song (which I initially predicted, but ultimately changed because of what I saw online. Thanks internet!).

Finally, I'd like to say just how happy I am that both The Lighthouse and Knives Out got solo nominations for Best Cinematography and Best Original Screenplay respectively. Just the words "Academy Award Nominee Rian Johnson" sound great!

Now, the fate of the winners lie in the hands of the Academy. Will they fulfill the prophecy, or mess it up again? .....they're gonna mess it up, aren't they? Ah well, whatever happens, hopefully The Irishman wins something.

Oscars 2020 - Final Nominations Predictions

This is it. Tomorrow when the bell tolls 7, we'll know everything, and soon we'll be fighting over what deserved a nomination and what didn't and complaining as to why something didn't get nominated. I'm anxious and excited at the same time, to see my dreams come true to see others be sunk, but whatever happens.....at least we can make fun of the Academy afterwards.

Best Picture

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. 1917
5. Joker
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari

I'm still banking on Parasite winning Best Picture for now just to be safe, despite Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's recent wins. I'm finally moving Jojo Rabbit back in here since its been able to mark all the right boxes so far, with the DGA nomination being the big one it needed.

Best Director

1. Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
2. Sam Mendes - 1917
3. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
4. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Greta Gerwig - Little Women

Little Women has very thankfully gotten a big boost as of late, particularly with PGA and BAFTA nominations that benefit both its actors and the film's overall chances. And, since the 5th slot of this category is essentially up for grabs right now and the backlash Golden Globes got for a lack of female directing nominees, Gerwig seems like she'll fill that slot nicely.

Best Lead Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
4. Taron Egerton - Rocketman
5. Robert De Niro - The Irishman

Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but despite missing SAG and Golden Globe nominations, but I feel De Niro is still getting in. Not only is his film a big player, but his legacy is something I doubt they'll pass up.

Phoenix and Driver are clearly happening no matter what, and Banderas gives a performance I can't see not making it. That leaves Egerton and Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and DiCaprio, despite being nominated for everything so far, just doesn't have the enthusiasm behind him that the other 5 do that could boost De Niro and Banderas, and has had zero precursor wins so far, even losing the Comedy Golden Globe to Egerton. I wouldn't be surprised if he still got nominated, but I'm going by my gut and saying he'll miss.

Best Lead Actress

1. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger - Judy
3. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
3. Al Pacino - The Irishman
4. Song Kang-ho - Parasite
5. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The three Ps are basically locked in at this point, and Kang-ho is easily the strongest candidate for "got nominated for nothing else but the Oscar" nominee. That leaves the fifth spot for Hanks and Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes to fight out. Hanks has been left in the dirt by the Academy for some time now, but the fact that he's playing Mr. Rogers and that his wonderful Golden Globe honorary award speech was right in the middle of Oscar voting, I finally feel safe saying that he's going to get an Oscar nomination again.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
3. Florence Pugh - Little Women
4. Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
5. Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

No J-Lo? I can't help but feel that a snub is awaiting her, with the "got nominated for everything but BAFTA and then missing the Oscar nomination" curse just yelling at me here, the same fate that awaited James Franco for The Disaster Artist and Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. Who gets in over here is a different story, but I'm going with Kathy Bates, as despite her film bombing financially and being passed over entirely by Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA, I think that her overall appeal will speak to the Academy.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Knives Out
5. The Farewell

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Irishman
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Two Popes
5. Joker

It pains me to leave out A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood here, but The Two Popes screenplay will undoubtedly appeal to Academy voters more, and Joker is far too well-liked in the industry. Although Joker could miss due to it being a comic book film, even then I Just Mercy pulling off a nomination-upset instead, given the Green Book-type appeal of the film.

Best Film Editing

1. Ford v Ferrari
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Best Cinematography

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Lighthouse
5. The Irishman

That fifth spot has been difficult to figure out, with Portrait of a Lady on Fire and A Hidden Life also seeming like likely solo-nomination candidates here, and Ford v Ferrari appearing at all the right precursors also. But I'm going with The Lighthouse, since the black and white appeal has gotten multiple films in this category as of late, and a BAFTA nomination for it really helps. The Irishman I feel is less safe, since it's cinematography is not one of the big things that comes to mind when people think of the film, and with Ford v Ferrari certainly having the momentum to best it, but I think I'll go with Scorsese's film considering it's been showing up here more.

Best Original Score

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Little Women
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Jojo Rabbit

Predicting that Jojo Rabbit will surprise and get nominated over Marriage Story, because if the BAFTAs nominated BlacKkKlansman over First Man the year before (which ended up leading to a shocking snub for the astronaut film), then recent history could very well repeat itself.

Best Original Song

1. "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" - Rocketman
2. "Into the Unknown" - Frozen II
3. "Stand Up" - Harriet
4. "I'm Standing With You" - Breakthrough
5. "Glasgow" - Wild Rose

Best Production Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Little Women

I know that Joker has had more of a presence here than Little Women, but I think that the period-piece appeal of Little Women will overthrow it here, but that's probably the only time I'll say that regarding Joker.

Best Costume Design

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. The Irishman
5. Rocketman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Joker
2. Bombshell
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

EDIT, JAN 12, 11:36pm: I decided to take Downton Abbey out of the #5 slots of both Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling basically last minute as I don't think the film really has the steam to get in anymore.

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Alita: Battle Angel
5. Terminator: Dark Fate

Best Sound Mixing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Editing

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Film

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. Missing Link
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best International Film

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Misérables
4. Atlantics
5. Those Who Remained

Best Documentary Film

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. One Child Nation
5. Maiden

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbor's Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Little Hands
4. Miller and Son
5. Refugee

Best Animated Short Film

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Dcera (Daughter)
4. The Physics of Sorrow
5. Mind My Mind

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
2. Fire in Paradise
3. Stay Close
4. St. Louis Superman
5. Ghosts of Sugar Land

Oscars 2020 - What We Learned From The Golden Globes

After a pretty rough year in terms of winners last year (Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book), I was pleasantly surprised by how not terrible the Golden Globes were this time around, though I undoubtedly still have my reservations.

1917 exceeded expectations in terms of awards play and took home prizes for Best Picture Drama and Best Directing. A film that's already been praised as a technical achievement and one of the best of 2019, ensuring its place as a major awards player, and perhaps multiple Oscar wins and nominations. The film's composer, Thomas Newman, still couldn't get a break, however, with Joker's composer, Hildur Gu∂nadóttir, taking the Original Score globe instead, but chances are he's still taking him the Oscar come February 9th.

Speaking of Joker, Joaquin Phoenix further boosted his position as Lead Actor frontrunner with his win for Drama. Also given that his work is being lauded as perhaps the year's best by those in the industry (aka Academy voters), it seems like the Oscar is in his grasp, even with him being a bit of a wild card.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had an excellent night, taking awards for Best Picture Comedy/Musical, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt's performance, who, after already leading in precursor wins for his category, appears to be a solidified frontrunner for the race. The film is likely to be our new frontrunner for Best Picture also, with industry and precursor love, Tarantino being one of the most beloved filmmakers in history, and with these victories all more than solidifying its impact for this awards season.

What it didn't win was the Lead Actor Comedy award for Leonardo DiCaprio, which ended up going to Taron Egerton for his role as Elton John for Rocketman instead (which also won Best Original Song). Whether he has an Oscar nomination on the way next week or not is still up in the air, but with a SAG nomination also and a very likely BAFTA nomination tomorrow, he's for sure worth considering.

Netflix wasn't so lucky, as Laura Dern's performance in Marriage Story was the only film prize they could achieve, though this could easily be the beginning of a sweep for the long overdue actress. Their big heavy hitter from Martin Scorsese, The Irishman, shockingly went home empty-handed, which doesn't destroy its possible awards impact, with an Adapted Screenplay win still seeming very likely and past Best Picture winners not having any globe wins (ex. Spotlight), but it definitely harms its chances which were originally seen as huge.

For the actress awards, Renée Zellweger (Judy) and (Awkwafina) won Best Actress Drama and Comedy respectively, with Zellweger's win setting up a possible sweep for her and Awkwafina's surely helping her chances, but Oscar nomination still isn't quite guaranteed right now, but if she gets a BAFTA nomination, it could very well happen.

Parasite winning Best Foreign Language film was no surprise, nothing more to say there.

Finally, Missing Link took everyone's predictions and tore them to pieces with a Best Animated Film win that no one saw coming, and one in which it was the only original film (not a sequel/remake) nominated for that category. A victory most likely attributed to tons of awards consideration advertisements, but right now its still Toy Story 4 leading the pack, but if this stop-motion film from Laika continues getting awards (Critics Choice, BAFTAs), then an underdog winner could be on the way.

With our first awards show of the season said and done, we've been left in a position that both concerns me and reassures me. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood possibly being the new frontrunner is all good by me and I'm honestly up for Phoenix winning Best Actor, but the shade that The Irishman could get is worrying, and Zellweger winning in a year with Ana de Armas and Saoirse Ronan can't help but leave me feeling underwhelmed. But the globes have been disregarded by other awards shows before, and chances are something similar will happen this year also, so maybe The Irishman will prevail and that Scarlett Johansson will win Lead Actress instead.